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Athletic Club v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 August 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–0
1.52 – 0.10 xG
Shots
13 – 2
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
12 – 1
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.65 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.54 – -0.10
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Beñat Prados 44' — goal
Athletic Club 1.54 xGValencia 0.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Iñaki Williams 11' — Shot On Post (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Oihan Sancet 11' — Missed Shot (0.57 xG, Set Piece)Gorka Guruzeta 20' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Gorka Guruzeta 20' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Iñaki Williams 20' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Gorka Guruzeta 32' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Diego López 39' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Beñat Prados 44' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Iñaki Williams 54' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nico Williams 60' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jesús Vázquez 69' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Unai Gómez 75' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nico Williams 81' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Unai Gómez 85' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nico Williams 87' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)
Athletic Club attacking right Valencia attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
11' Athletic Club Iñaki Williams 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Shot On Post
11' Athletic Club Oihan Sancet 0.57 Set Piece Missed Shot
20' Athletic Club Gorka Guruzeta 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Beñat Prados
20' Athletic Club Gorka Guruzeta 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Mikel Jauregizar
20' Athletic Club Iñaki Williams 0.32 Open Play Saved Shot
32' Athletic Club Gorka Guruzeta 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Iñaki Williams
39' Valencia Diego López 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
44' Athletic Club Beñat Prados 0.02 Open Play Goal De Marcos
54' Athletic Club Iñaki Williams 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Oihan Sancet
60' Athletic Club Nico Williams 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Iñaki Williams
69' Valencia Jesús Vázquez 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
75' Athletic Club Unai Gómez 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mikel Vesga
81' Athletic Club Nico Williams 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
85' Athletic Club Unai Gómez 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
87' Athletic Club Nico Williams 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Mikel Jauregizar

Players

Athletic Club

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Iñaki Williams AMR 90 0 0 3 2 0.40 0.17 0.55
Yeray Álvarez DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dani Vivian DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
De Marcos DR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.10
Mikel Jauregizar DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.09
Julen Agirrezabala GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adama Boiro DL 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oihan Sancet AMC 73 0 0 1 1 0.57 0.07 0.23
Beñat Prados DMC 73 1 0 1 1 0.02 0.07 0.09
Gorka Guruzeta FW 72 0 0 3 0 0.20 0.00 0.16
Álvaro Djaló AML 60 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nico Williams Sub 30 0 0 3 0 0.21 0.00 0.20
Mikel Vesga Sub 18 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Unai Gómez Sub 17 0 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.14
Javier Martón Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Íñigo Lekue Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Valencia

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jesús Vázquez DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Cristhian Mosquera DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Luis Rioja ML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hugo Guillamón MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hugo Duro FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giorgi Mamardashvili GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dimitri Foulquier DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
César Tárrega DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Diego López MR 84 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Pepelu MC 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rafa Mir FW 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
André Almeida Sub 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Javier Guerra Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Martín Tejón Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dani Gómez Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thierry Correia Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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