Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 6
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 2
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+2.28 – -0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atletico Madrid win
53.6%
Draw
25.6%
Real Sociedad win
20.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Real Sociedad have scored 13 from 13.9 expected and conceded 18 from 19.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLDDLDLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 13.9 xG
conceded 18
from 19.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–0.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.72–0.84 | 1-0 13% | 47% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atletico Madrid 1.72 xGReal Sociedad 0.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atletico Madrid attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 9' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Samuel Lino |
| 10' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.56 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 15' |
 Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 20' |
Atletico Madrid |
Samuel Lino | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 25' |
Real Sociedad |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Javi Galán |
| 36' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 41' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Lino |
| 46' |
Real Sociedad |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 49' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Marcos Llorente |
| 55' |
Atletico Madrid |
Rodrigo de Paul | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 55' |
Atletico Madrid |
Samuel Lino | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Sørloth |
| 56' |
Real Sociedad |
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 66' |
Atletico Madrid |
Javi Galán | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Koke |
| 71' |
Real Sociedad |
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 76' |
Atletico Madrid |
Thomas Lemar | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Atletico Madrid |
Ángel Correa | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nahuel Molina |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pablo Marín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Aritz Elustondo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luka Sucic MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Ander Barrenetxea ML | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Igor Zubeldia Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sergio Gómez Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Koke MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giménez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 76 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.03 | 1.13 |
| Rodrigo de Paul MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Samuel Lino FWL | 70 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.12 | 0.63 |
| Giuliano Simeone FWR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 57 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ángel Correa Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |