Atletico Madrid v Real Valladolid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 14 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 6
On target
9 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
1.71 – 0.83
Goals − xG
-0.13 – +0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atletico Madrid win
79.1%
Draw
13.6%
Real Valladolid win
7.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.5 xG
conceded 27
from 21.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.60–0.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.76–0.65 | 2-0 13% | 66% | 45% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atletico Madrid 4.13 xGReal Valladolid 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atletico Madrid attacking right
Real Valladolid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 5' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 9' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
 Real Valladolid |
Mamadou Sylla | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 24' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 26' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 28' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Koke |
| 30' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 35' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 38' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giménez | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Koke |
| 46' |
Real Valladolid |
Darwin Machís | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Henrique |
| 55' |
Real Valladolid |
Javi Sánchez | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 61' |
Atletico Madrid |
Javi Galán | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Sørloth |
| 66' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 67' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 67' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 70' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 76' |
Atletico Madrid |
Thomas Lemar | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 78' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 78' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 79' |
Real Valladolid |
Raul Moro | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Sylla |
| 88' |
Atletico Madrid |
Javi Galán | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 91' |
Real Valladolid |
Raul Moro | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Iván Sánchez |
| 92' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nahuel Molina |
| 93' |
Real Valladolid |
Iván Sánchez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Raul Moro |
| 94' |
Atletico Madrid |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
Players
Real Valladolid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Sylla FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Javi Sánchez DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.55 |
| Joseph Aidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Antonio Candela DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| André Ferreira GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Anuar Mohamed MR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Florian Grillitsch MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Darwin Machís ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Chuki MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stanko Juric DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tamás Nikitscher Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Raul Moro Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.01 | 0.54 |
| Iván Sánchez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| Selim Amallah Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Amath Diedhiou Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.71 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 1.57 |
| Giménez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.68 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Conor Gallagher ML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Antoine Griezmann FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| Koke MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.61 |
| Alexander Sørloth Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.02 | 0.91 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.71 |
| Robin Le Normand Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.56 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.57 |