Atlético Nacional v Millonarios — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 24 September 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Atlético Nacional

21:30

Millonarios

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 426h before kick-off

Atlético Nacional win

59.2%

model 59.4%

Draw

21.6%

model 23.9%

Millonarios win

19.2%

model 16.7%

592219

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.4%
2-0 10.8%
1-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
0-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.3%	Under 2.5	46.7%
BTTS yes	51.9%	BTTS no	48.1%
Atlético Nacional 1+	85.0%	Atlético Nacional 2+	56.5%
Millonarios 1+	59.9%	Millonarios 2+	23.3%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.92. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Atlético Nacional over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 42%

56.2% fair odds 1.78

strong signal · 737 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Millonarios not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Atlético Nacional carry the stronger rating, 1704 Elo against 1567.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
They have had 25 days' rest to Millonarios's 21.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Atlético Nacional have an estimated 59.2% win probability, against 21.6% for the draw and 19.2% for Millonarios. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.89 for Atlético Nacional and 0.92 for Millonarios.

Why Atlético Nacional

Atlético Nacional carry the stronger rating, 1704 Elo against 1567. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. They have had 25 days' rest to Millonarios's 21.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Millonarios can win

Nothing in the data singles out Millonarios.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlético Nacional, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Millonarios, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlético Nacional: 60% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Millonarios: 51% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 8.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Atlético Nacional are the model's most likely outcome at 59.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	592417	1.89–0.92	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	612315	1.93–0.87	2-0 11%	53%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to win	61.4%	58.1%	45.9%	1.27×	1.72
Draw	23.3%	24.5%	29.5%	0.83×	4.09
Millonarios to win	15.3%	19.3%	24.8%	0.78×	5.18

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional & not both score	35.0%	29.7%	27.1%	1.10×	3.36
Atlético Nacional & both teams score	26.5%	25.2%	18.9%	1.33×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.3%	17.9%	18.8%	0.95×	5.58
Millonarios & both teams score	7.8%	8.4%	11.4%	0.74×	11.93
Millonarios & not both score	7.4%	8.4%	13.5%	0.62×	11.93
Draw & not both score	7.0%	8.4%	10.8%	0.77×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional & over 1.5	50.6%	48.7%	33.9%	1.43×	2.05
Atlético Nacional & under 3.5	39.3%	34.9%	35.7%	0.98×	2.87
Atlético Nacional & over 2.5	39.3%	34.9%	25.6%	1.36×	2.87
Atlético Nacional & under 2.5	22.1%	21.7%	20.4%	1.06×	4.62
Atlético Nacional & over 3.5	22.1%	21.7%	10.3%	2.10×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	18.1%	18.0%	23.8%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.1%	18.0%	23.8%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.3%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Millonarios & under 3.5	11.7%	12.9%	19.9%	0.65×	7.77
Atlético Nacional & under 1.5	10.8%	12.9%	12.1%	1.06×	7.77
Millonarios & over 1.5	10.9%	12.9%	16.4%	0.78×	7.77
Millonarios & over 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	12.8%	0.62×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
Millonarios & under 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	12.1%	0.65×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.8%	1.35×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.8%	1.35×	12.70
Millonarios & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	8.5%	0.56×	20.93
Millonarios & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.0%	0.95×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (1UP)	73.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Millonarios (1UP)	32.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (2UP)	61.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Millonarios (2UP)	15.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to win 2nd half	49.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
2nd half drawn	33.4%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Millonarios to win 2nd half	17.0%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (+0.5)	84.7%	82.4%	75.2%	1.10×	1.21
Millonarios (+2.5)	81.6%	82.4%	91.8%	0.90×	1.21
Millonarios (+1.5)	62.4%	62.9%	79.6%	0.79×	1.59
Atlético Nacional (-0.5)	61.4%	62.9%	45.9%	1.37×	1.59
Millonarios (+0.5)	38.6%	37.1%	54.1%	0.69×	2.70
Atlético Nacional (-1.5)	37.6%	37.1%	20.4%	1.81×	2.70
Atlético Nacional (-2.5)	18.4%	17.6%	8.2%	2.14×	5.68
Millonarios (-0.5)	15.3%	17.6%	24.8%	0.71×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios to concede	85.5%	86.4%	75.8%	1.14×	1.16
Millonarios clean sheet	14.5%	13.6%	24.2%	0.56×	7.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios to concede in 1st half	56.5%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Millonarios clean sheet in 1st half	43.5%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios under 6.5 corners	83.0%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Millonarios under 5.5 corners	73.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Millonarios over 2.5 corners	71.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Millonarios under 4.5 corners	60.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Millonarios over 3.5 corners	55.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Millonarios under 3.5 corners	44.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Millonarios over 4.5 corners	39.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Millonarios under 2.5 corners	28.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Millonarios over 5.5 corners	26.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Millonarios over 6.5 corners	17.0%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.6%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Millonarios under 2.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	92.9%	0.99×	1.08
Millonarios under 1.5 goals	78.4%	76.2%	74.4%	1.02×	1.31
Millonarios over 0.5 goals	58.0%	59.5%	62.2%	0.96×	1.68
Millonarios under 0.5 goals	42.0%	40.5%	37.8%	1.07×	2.47
Millonarios over 1.5 goals	21.6%	23.8%	25.6%	0.93×	4.21
Millonarios over 2.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	7.1%	1.08×	13.05
Millonarios over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	1.9%	1.26×	40.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios under 1.5 in 1st half	95.2%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Millonarios under 0.5 in 1st half	70.7%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Millonarios over 0.5 in 1st half	29.3%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Millonarios over 1.5 in 1st half	4.8%	4.4%	—	—	22.48

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (away no bet)	72.5%	68.6%	60.9%	1.13×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	27.5%	31.5%	39.1%	0.80×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios even goals	58.8%	56.9%	57.4%	0.99×	1.76
Millonarios odd goals	41.2%	43.1%	42.6%	1.01×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.1%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.8%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.2%	31.5%	—	—	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.1%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Atlético Nacional to score 2+ in a row	50.7%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.6%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Atlético Nacional to score 3+ in a row	23.0%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Millonarios to score 2+ in a row	14.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.18
Millonarios to score 3+ in a row	2.7%	2.6%	—	—	38.90

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional corners (+3.5)	89.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Atlético Nacional corners (+2.5)	83.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Atlético Nacional corners (+1.5)	76.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Millonarios corners (+3.5)	72.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Millonarios corners (+2.5)	63.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Millonarios corners (+1.5)	53.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Atlético Nacional corners (-1.5)	46.6%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Atlético Nacional corners (-2.5)	36.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Atlético Nacional corners (-3.5)	27.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Millonarios corners (-1.5)	23.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Millonarios corners (-2.5)	16.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Millonarios corners (-3.5)	10.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
12+ corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
9-11 corners	28.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	70.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	52.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	37.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	32.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	29.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	11.4%	11.5%	8.5%	1.35×	8.73
1-0	10.8%	11.5%	12.1%	0.95×	8.73
1-1	11.1%	11.5%	13.1%	0.88×	8.73
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	11.0%	0.68×	13.48
0-0	7.0%	7.4%	10.8%	0.68×	13.48
3-0	7.3%	7.4%	4.6%	1.62×	13.48
3-1	6.4%	7.4%	3.5%	2.13×	13.48
Any other score	4.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.46
0-1	4.3%	1.7%	8.5%	0.20×	58.46
0-2	2.3%	1.7%	3.8%	0.46×	58.48
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	3.07×	58.49
1-2	4.4%	1.7%	7.0%	0.25×	58.46
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.48
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.46×	58.49
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.1%	0.33×	58.47
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	12.29×	58.49
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.47
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.05×	58.49
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.15×	58.49
4-0	3.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.47
4-1	3.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.46×	58.47
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.46×	58.48
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	3.07×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	12.29×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional leading at HT (DNB)	75.7%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Millonarios leading at HT (DNB)	24.3%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional or draw (1X)	84.7%	80.7%	75.2%	1.07×	1.24
Atlético Nacional or Millonarios (12)	76.7%	75.5%	70.5%	1.07×	1.32
Millonarios or draw (X2)	38.6%	41.9%	54.1%	0.77×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional or draw at HT	85.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Atlético Nacional or Millonarios at HT	59.4%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Millonarios or draw at HT	55.1%	56.8%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional or draw (1UP)	84.7%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Millonarios or draw (1UP)	38.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional or draw in 2nd half	83.0%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Atlético Nacional or Millonarios in 2nd half	66.6%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Millonarios or draw in 2nd half	50.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (DNB)	80.1%	80.4%	65.0%	1.24×	1.24
Millonarios (DNB)	19.9%	19.6%	35.0%	0.56×	5.10

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to score first	64.2%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Millonarios to score first	28.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
No goal scored	7.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.33

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.6%	51.4%	48.8%	1.05×	1.95
Not both teams to score	49.4%	48.6%	51.2%	0.95×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.4%	38.5%	35.9%	1.07×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	35.8%	38.5%	43.1%	0.89×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	13.7%	12.3%	8.2%	1.50×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	11.1%	12.3%	13.1%	0.94×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.6%	85.6%	88.7%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.4%	14.4%	11.3%	1.28×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.6%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.3%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	22.9%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	12.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.5%	5.1%	—	—	19.79

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.3%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.7%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	44.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	47.4%	48.1%	0.98×	2.11
4-6 goals	28.4%	26.5%	19.5%	1.36×	3.78
0-1 goals	22.1%	22.8%	31.2%	0.73×	4.39
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	1.5%	1.20×	54.55

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios to score exactly 0	42.0%	37.0%	37.8%	0.98×	2.70
Millonarios to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	36.7%	0.98×	2.78
Millonarios to score exactly 2	15.8%	19.6%	18.6%	1.05×	5.11
Millonarios to score 3+	5.8%	8.4%	7.1%	1.19×	11.85

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to score 3+	30.5%	32.6%	15.6%	2.10×	3.06
Atlético Nacional to score exactly 1	28.0%	26.5%	34.4%	0.77×	3.77
Atlético Nacional to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	26.1%	1.01×	3.77
Atlético Nacional to score exactly 0	14.5%	14.3%	24.2%	0.59×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional leading at HT	44.9%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Draw at HT	40.6%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Millonarios leading at HT	14.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.32

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional -1: 2	38.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Atlético Nacional -1: 1	37.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Atlético Nacional -1: X	23.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (0:1)	38.6%	37.3%	54.1%	0.69×	2.68
Atlético Nacional (0:1)	37.6%	37.3%	20.4%	1.82×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.8%	24.3%	25.6%	0.95×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (0:2)	62.4%	67.3%	79.6%	0.85×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	19.2%	15.3%	12.4%	1.24×	6.54
Atlético Nacional (0:2)	18.4%	15.3%	8.2%	1.86×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (0:3)	81.6%	85.1%	91.8%	0.93×	1.18
Draw (0:3)	11.0%	10.0%	5.4%	1.84×	10.02
Atlético Nacional (0:3)	7.4%	5.8%	2.9%	2.00×	17.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios (0:4)	92.6%	94.7%	97.1%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.9%	1.2%	1.9%	0.62×	83.10
Atlético Nacional (0:4)	2.5%	1.2%	1.1%	1.08×	83.38

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (1:0)	84.7%	81.5%	75.2%	1.08×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.2%	12.8%	17.2%	0.74×	7.82
Millonarios (1:0)	5.1%	6.9%	7.7%	0.90×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (2:0)	94.9%	94.0%	92.4%	1.02×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	3.9%	2.3%	5.0%	0.45×	44.12
Millonarios (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	2.8%	0.81×	44.30

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	26.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to concede	58.0%	61.0%	62.2%	0.98×	1.64
Atlético Nacional clean sheet	42.0%	39.0%	37.8%	1.03×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional clean sheet in 1st half	70.7%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Atlético Nacional to concede in 1st half	29.3%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional over 2.5 corners	83.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Atlético Nacional over 3.5 corners	71.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Atlético Nacional under 6.5 corners	67.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Atlético Nacional over 4.5 corners	57.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Atlético Nacional under 5.5 corners	56.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Atlético Nacional over 5.5 corners	43.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Atlético Nacional under 4.5 corners	42.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Atlético Nacional over 6.5 corners	32.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Atlético Nacional under 3.5 corners	28.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Atlético Nacional under 2.5 corners	16.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional under 3.5 goals	86.9%	87.3%	95.3%	0.92×	1.15
Atlético Nacional over 0.5 goals	85.5%	87.2%	75.8%	1.15×	1.15
Atlético Nacional under 2.5 goals	69.5%	67.9%	84.4%	0.80×	1.47
Atlético Nacional over 1.5 goals	57.6%	58.8%	41.6%	1.41×	1.70
Atlético Nacional under 1.5 goals	42.4%	41.2%	58.4%	0.71×	2.43
Atlético Nacional over 2.5 goals	30.5%	32.1%	15.6%	2.06×	3.11
Atlético Nacional under 0.5 goals	14.5%	12.8%	24.2%	0.53×	7.84
Atlético Nacional over 3.5 goals	13.1%	12.7%	4.7%	2.70×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional under 1.5 in 1st half	79.7%	77.4%	—	—	1.29
Atlético Nacional over 0.5 in 1st half	56.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Atlético Nacional under 0.5 in 1st half	43.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Atlético Nacional over 1.5 in 1st half	20.3%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	60.4%	60.1%	54.4%	1.11×	1.66
Millonarios (home no bet)	39.6%	39.9%	45.6%	0.87×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional even goals	51.0%	50.6%	53.4%	0.95×	1.98
Atlético Nacional odd goals	49.0%	49.4%	46.6%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	25.4%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
HT 2-0	10.6%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-1	10.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 1-1	9.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
Any other HT score	5.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.34
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.50
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.56

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional at HT / Atlético Nacional at FT	39.1%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Draw at HT / Atlético Nacional at FT	19.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Millonarios at HT / Millonarios at FT	7.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Draw at HT / Millonarios at FT	6.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.70
Atlético Nacional at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Millonarios at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Millonarios at HT / Atlético Nacional at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Atlético Nacional at HT / Millonarios at FT	1.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to score last	64.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Millonarios to score last	28.6%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
No goal scored	7.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.33

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.0%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Atlético Nacional to lead by 1 at any time	73.2%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Atlético Nacional to lead by 2 at any time	43.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Millonarios to lead by 1 at any time	32.6%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Atlético Nacional to lead by 3 at any time	21.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Millonarios to lead by 2 at any time	8.8%	6.7%	—	—	14.99
Millonarios to lead by 3 at any time	1.9%	1.6%	—	—	62.42

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional most corners	57.2%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Millonarios most corners	32.5%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	87.4%	85.7%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.7%	78.6%	80.0%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.4%	78.6%	67.5%	1.17×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.4%	72.4%	65.4%	1.11×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.6%	63.4%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
1-3 goals	62.1%	63.4%	68.4%	0.93×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.7%	53.2%	42.6%	1.25×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.7%	48.1%	1.01×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.6%	48.7%	40.5%	1.20×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.9%	39.2%	45.3%	0.86×	2.55
3-4 goals	37.8%	39.2%	34.8%	1.13×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.4%	30.3%	19.5%	1.55×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.3%	24.5%	17.4%	1.41×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.8%	14.9%	7.9%	1.88×	6.72
7+ goals	2.4%	2.6%	1.5%	1.67×	39.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional never behind	60.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Millonarios never behind	19.7%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.9%	50.8%	50.3%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.1%	49.2%	49.7%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.1%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.9%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	96.4%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	89.2%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.8%	82.4%	90.7%	0.91×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	77.9%	77.3%	68.8%	1.12×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.2%	66.2%	79.1%	0.84×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.1%	52.5%	44.0%	1.19×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	46.9%	47.5%	56.1%	0.85×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.8%	33.8%	20.9%	1.62×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	22.1%	22.7%	31.2%	0.73×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	15.2%	17.6%	9.3%	1.89×	5.68
Under 0.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	10.8%	0.71×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	3.6%	2.14×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.9%	92.5%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.9%	81.1%	89.5%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.6%	72.6%	58.5%	1.24×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.3%	62.1%	72.9%	0.85×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.7%	38.0%	27.1%	1.40×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.4%	27.4%	41.5%	0.66×	3.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.1%	18.9%	10.5%	1.80×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.1%	7.5%	3.8%	1.97×	13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.8%	1.6%	1.77×	36.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.4%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.1%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.9%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.1%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.10

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios not to score in both halves	88.1%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Atlético Nacional not to score in both halves	62.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Atlético Nacional to score in both halves	37.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Millonarios to score in both halves	11.9%	14.2%	—	—	7.06

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.6%	53.9%	48.8%	1.10×	1.86
Only Atlético Nacional scores	35.0%	33.4%	27.1%	1.23×	3.00
Only Millonarios scores	7.4%	7.2%	13.5%	0.53×	13.91
Neither team scores	7.0%	7.2%	10.8%	0.66×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.8%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	17.4%	11.7%	1.49×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	15.1%	17.4%	20.4%	0.85×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	8.7%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.0%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.09
6 or more goals	6.5%	7.6%	3.6%	2.11×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.6%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	31.4%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	20.1%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios not to win both halves	97.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Atlético Nacional not to win both halves	77.5%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Atlético Nacional to win both halves	22.5%	24.7%	—	—	4.05
Millonarios to win both halves	2.5%	2.8%	—	—	36.19

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to win either half	72.0%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Millonarios to win neither half	71.1%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Millonarios to win either half	28.9%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Atlético Nacional to win neither half	28.0%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Millonarios not to win to nil	92.6%	92.0%	86.5%	1.06×	1.09
Atlético Nacional not to win to nil	65.0%	69.6%	72.9%	0.96×	1.44
Atlético Nacional to win to nil	35.0%	30.4%	27.1%	1.12×	3.29
Millonarios to win to nil	7.4%	8.0%	13.5%	0.59×	12.57

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional by 1	23.8%	24.2%	25.6%	0.94×	4.14
Draw	23.3%	24.2%	29.5%	0.82×	4.14
Atlético Nacional by 2	19.2%	16.9%	12.4%	1.37×	5.91
Atlético Nacional by 3+	18.4%	16.9%	8.2%	2.06×	5.91
Millonarios by 1	10.2%	11.8%	17.2%	0.68×	8.48
Millonarios by 2	3.9%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.96
Millonarios by 3+	1.2%	2.7%	2.8%	0.97×	37.04