Aucas v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · ECU-LigaPro · 2627

ECU-LigaPro results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Aucas

20:00

Barcelona

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 16h before kick-off

Aucas win

40.4%

model 36.4%

Draw

29.4%

model 30.0%

Barcelona win

30.2%

model 33.6%

402930

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 14.4%
0-1 13.7%
0-0 13.2%
1-1 13.1%
2-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	32.1%	Under 2.5	67.9%
BTTS yes	39.3%	BTTS no	60.7%
Aucas 1+	64.0%	Aucas 2+	27.3%
Barcelona 1+	62.1%	Barcelona 2+	25.3%

Expected goals 1.02 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Under 2 (void on exactly 2)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 41%

55.6% fair odds 1.80

moderate signal · 592 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Barcelona not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

Barcelona have played 8 matches in the last 30 days.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Aucas have an estimated 40.4% win probability, against 30.2% for Barcelona and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.02 for Aucas and 0.97 for Barcelona.

Why Aucas

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. A combined 1.99 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.02 to 0.97. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Barcelona can win

Barcelona carry the stronger rating, 1646 Elo against 1598. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Barcelona's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lamine Yamal (0.79), Raphinha (0.76), Robert Lewandowski (0.48).

Availability

No lineup on record for Aucas, so availability is unknown. 1 of Barcelona's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Aucas: 42% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 6.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Barcelona: 63% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Aucas are the model's most likely outcome at 40.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.4%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WWWLWLWWWW last 10 scored 27 from 24.5 xG conceded 8 from 9.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	363034	1.02–0.97	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	403029	1.08–0.87	1-0 16%	31%	38%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas to win	40.4%	43.0%	44.2%	0.97×	2.33
Draw	30.2%	30.3%	26.4%	1.15×	3.30
Barcelona to win	29.4%	27.9%	29.6%	0.94×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas & not both score	28.1%	25.2%	25.5%	0.99×	3.97
Barcelona & not both score	20.3%	21.9%	18.0%	1.21×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	16.4%	17.9%	18.6%	0.96×	5.58
Draw & not both score	13.9%	13.3%	8.0%	1.66×	7.54
Aucas & both teams score	12.2%	13.3%	19.0%	0.70×	7.54
Barcelona & both teams score	9.1%	8.4%	11.7%	0.72×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas & under 3.5	34.3%	30.9%	33.3%	0.93×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	26.8%	26.0%	22.1%	1.18×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.8%	26.0%	22.1%	1.18×	3.84
Barcelona & under 3.5	25.7%	26.0%	22.3%	1.17×	3.84
Aucas & over 1.5	24.5%	21.7%	32.2%	0.67×	4.62
Aucas & under 2.5	24.1%	21.7%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Barcelona & under 2.5	18.3%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Barcelona & over 1.5	16.5%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Aucas & under 1.5	15.9%	18.0%	12.3%	1.47×	5.56
Aucas & over 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	24.5%	0.73×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.4%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	13.9%	12.9%	8.0%	1.61×	7.77
Barcelona & under 1.5	12.9%	12.9%	10.6%	1.21×	7.77
Barcelona & over 2.5	11.1%	12.9%	14.7%	0.88×	7.77
Aucas & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	11.2%	0.71×	12.70
Barcelona & over 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	7.4%	0.64×	20.94
Draw & over 2.5	3.5%	4.8%	4.5%	1.07×	20.94
Draw & over 3.5	3.5%	4.8%	4.5%	1.07×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas (1UP)	52.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Barcelona (1UP)	42.2%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas (2UP)	40.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Barcelona (2UP)	29.4%	25.0%	—	—	4.00

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.0%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Aucas to win 2nd half	31.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Barcelona to win 2nd half	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (+2.5)	95.1%	96.3%	92.2%	1.04×	1.04
Barcelona (+1.5)	83.9%	82.4%	80.5%	1.02×	1.21
Aucas (+0.5)	70.6%	73.7%	70.4%	1.05×	1.36
Barcelona (+0.5)	59.6%	57.0%	55.8%	1.02×	1.75
Aucas (-0.5)	40.4%	43.0%	44.2%	0.97×	2.33
Barcelona (-0.5)	29.4%	26.3%	29.6%	0.89×	3.80
Aucas (-1.5)	16.1%	17.6%	19.5%	0.90×	5.69
Aucas (-2.5)	4.9%	3.7%	7.8%	0.48×	26.75

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to concede	65.9%	72.5%	74.2%	0.98×	1.38
Barcelona clean sheet	34.1%	27.5%	25.8%	1.07×	3.63

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona clean sheet in 1st half	63.0%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Barcelona to concede in 1st half	37.0%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona under 6.5 corners	88.9%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Barcelona under 5.5 corners	80.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Barcelona over 2.5 corners	68.0%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Barcelona under 4.5 corners	67.7%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Barcelona under 3.5 corners	50.9%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Barcelona over 3.5 corners	49.1%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Barcelona over 4.5 corners	32.3%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Barcelona under 2.5 corners	32.0%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Barcelona over 5.5 corners	19.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.24
Barcelona over 6.5 corners	11.1%	15.1%	—	—	6.64

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.6%	96.8%	1.01×	1.03
Barcelona under 2.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Barcelona under 1.5 goals	78.4%	76.2%	73.8%	1.03×	1.31
Barcelona over 0.5 goals	58.0%	59.5%	66.7%	0.89×	1.68
Barcelona under 0.5 goals	42.0%	40.5%	33.3%	1.22×	2.47
Barcelona over 1.5 goals	21.6%	23.8%	26.2%	0.91×	4.21
Barcelona over 2.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	10.2%	0.75×	13.05
Barcelona over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	3.2%	0.78×	40.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona under 1.5 in 1st half	95.2%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Barcelona under 0.5 in 1st half	70.7%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Barcelona over 0.5 in 1st half	29.3%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Barcelona over 1.5 in 1st half	4.8%	4.4%	—	—	22.48

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas (away no bet)	57.2%	57.5%	62.6%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.8%	42.5%	37.4%	1.14×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona even goals	58.8%	56.9%	51.7%	1.10×	1.76
Barcelona odd goals	41.2%	43.1%	48.3%	0.89×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.9%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	55.5%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Not both halves under 1.5	44.5%	40.1%	—	—	2.50

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	38.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Aucas to score 2+ in a row	24.3%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Barcelona to score 2+ in a row	17.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	10.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Aucas to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.6%	—	—	17.74
Barcelona to score 3+ in a row	3.7%	2.6%	—	—	38.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas corners (+3.5)	91.4%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Aucas corners (+2.5)	85.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Barcelona corners (+3.5)	78.2%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Aucas corners (+1.5)	77.6%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Barcelona corners (+2.5)	68.5%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Barcelona corners (+1.5)	57.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Aucas corners (-1.5)	43.0%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Aucas corners (-2.5)	31.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Barcelona corners (-1.5)	22.4%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Aucas corners (-3.5)	21.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Barcelona corners (-2.5)	14.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.31
Barcelona corners (-3.5)	8.6%	11.4%	—	—	8.81

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.2%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	17.6%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.1%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	82.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 10.5 corners	74.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	57.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.2%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Over 8.5 corners	45.8%	47.7%	—	—	2.09
Under 7.5 corners	42.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 10.5 corners	25.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	17.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Over 12.5 corners	11.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.9%	13.7%	12.3%	1.12×	7.27
0-0	13.9%	11.5%	8.0%	1.43×	8.73
0-1	12.9%	11.5%	10.6%	1.08×	8.73
1-1	12.9%	11.5%	14.3%	0.80×	8.73
2-0	8.3%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.48
2-1	7.2%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.48
0-2	5.4%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.48
1-2	5.8%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.48
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.48
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.48
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.47
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.47
3-1	2.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.47
3-2	1.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.48
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.20×	58.49
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.49
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.49
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.60×	58.49
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	9.20×	58.49
Any other score	0.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas leading at HT (DNB)	58.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Barcelona leading at HT (DNB)	41.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas or draw (1X)	70.6%	72.1%	70.4%	1.02×	1.39
Aucas or Barcelona (12)	69.8%	69.7%	73.6%	0.95×	1.44
Barcelona or draw (X2)	59.6%	57.0%	55.8%	1.02×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas or draw at HT	80.0%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Barcelona or draw at HT	71.8%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Aucas or Barcelona at HT	48.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas or draw (1UP)	70.6%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Barcelona or draw (1UP)	59.6%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas or draw in 2nd half	74.5%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Barcelona or draw in 2nd half	68.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Aucas or Barcelona in 2nd half	57.0%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	73.0%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Neither half drawn	27.0%	28.7%	—	—	3.48

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas (DNB)	57.8%	58.3%	60.0%	0.97×	1.72
Barcelona (DNB)	42.2%	41.7%	40.1%	1.04×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas to score first	47.7%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Barcelona to score first	38.5%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	13.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.52

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	62.2%	56.5%	51.1%	1.11×	1.77
Both teams to score	37.8%	43.5%	48.9%	0.89×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	56.3%	47.2%	42.6%	1.11×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	24.8%	27.8%	34.8%	0.80×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	12.3%	14.3%	0.86×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	5.9%	8.4%	8.7%	0.96×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.7%	89.1%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.3%	10.9%	10.0%	1.08×	9.20

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	81.6%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half	18.4%	27.2%	—	—	3.68

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	72.8%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Both score 2nd half only	16.4%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
Both score 1st half only	8.8%	6.8%	—	—	14.66
Both score in both halves	2.0%	4.9%	—	—	20.32

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.2%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	10.8%	13.7%	—	—	7.33

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	62.6%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
A goal in each half	37.4%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.1%	42.1%	47.0%	0.90×	2.37
0-1 goals	42.6%	42.1%	30.5%	1.38×	2.38
4-6 goals	12.9%	16.9%	21.4%	0.79×	5.91
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	1.5%	1.23×	54.77

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to score exactly 0	42.0%	37.0%	33.3%	1.11×	2.70
Barcelona to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	40.7%	0.88×	2.78
Barcelona to score exactly 2	15.8%	19.6%	16.2%	1.21×	5.11
Barcelona to score 3+	5.8%	8.4%	10.2%	0.83×	11.85

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	35.1%	1.01×	2.81
Aucas to score exactly 0	34.1%	32.7%	25.8%	1.26×	3.06
Aucas to score exactly 2	19.7%	18.9%	24.5%	0.77×	5.29
Aucas to score 3+	9.5%	10.3%	14.9%	0.69×	9.70

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	51.8%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Aucas leading at HT	28.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Barcelona leading at HT	20.0%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas -1: 2	59.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Aucas -1: X	24.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Aucas -1: 1	16.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (0:1)	59.6%	55.9%	55.8%	1.00×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	24.3%	24.3%	24.9%	0.97×	4.12
Aucas (0:1)	16.1%	17.8%	19.5%	0.91×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (0:2)	83.9%	82.8%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.2%	11.0%	11.9%	0.92×	9.13
Aucas (0:2)	4.9%	3.8%	7.8%	0.48×	26.46

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (0:3)	95.1%	96.6%	92.2%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	4.6%	0.51×	42.10
Aucas (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	96.7%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.2%	0.54×	83.57
Aucas (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.3%	0.92×	83.66

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas (1:0)	70.6%	72.5%	70.4%	1.03×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	19.7%	17.0%	18.2%	0.94×	5.87
Barcelona (1:0)	9.7%	6.9%	11.5%	0.60×	14.40

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas (2:0)	90.3%	93.9%	88.5%	1.06×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	7.3%	6.5%	7.4%	0.87×	15.49
Barcelona (2:0)	2.4%	2.3%	4.3%	0.53×	44.22

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.5%	49.6%	—	—	2.02
Halves equal	30.1%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas to concede	58.0%	61.0%	66.7%	0.91×	1.64
Aucas clean sheet	42.0%	39.0%	33.3%	1.17×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas clean sheet in 1st half	70.7%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Aucas to concede in 1st half	29.3%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas over 2.5 corners	80.1%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Aucas under 6.5 corners	77.8%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Aucas under 5.5 corners	66.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Aucas over 3.5 corners	64.8%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Aucas under 4.5 corners	51.4%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Aucas over 4.5 corners	48.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Aucas under 3.5 corners	35.2%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Aucas over 5.5 corners	33.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Aucas over 6.5 corners	22.2%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Aucas under 2.5 corners	19.9%	18.7%	—	—	5.35

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas under 3.5 goals	97.6%	96.4%	94.6%	1.02×	1.04
Aucas under 2.5 goals	90.5%	92.2%	85.1%	1.08×	1.08
Aucas under 1.5 goals	70.8%	74.2%	60.8%	1.22×	1.35
Aucas over 0.5 goals	65.9%	67.9%	74.2%	0.91×	1.47
Aucas under 0.5 goals	34.1%	32.1%	25.8%	1.24×	3.11
Aucas over 1.5 goals	29.2%	25.8%	39.2%	0.66×	3.87
Aucas over 2.5 goals	9.5%	7.8%	14.9%	0.52×	12.89
Aucas over 3.5 goals	2.4%	3.6%	5.4%	0.67×	27.51

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	95.4%	—	—	1.05
Aucas under 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Aucas over 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	35.3%	—	—	2.84
Aucas over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	4.6%	—	—	21.55

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.7%	51.6%	47.2%	1.09×	1.94
Barcelona (home no bet)	49.3%	48.4%	52.8%	0.92×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas even goals	55.8%	55.4%	54.3%	1.02×	1.80
Aucas odd goals	44.2%	44.6%	45.7%	0.97×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	44.4%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
HT 1-0	20.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
HT 0-1	15.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-1	7.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 2-0	4.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.26
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.41
Any other HT score	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.52
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.59

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas at HT / Aucas at FT	22.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Aucas at FT	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Barcelona at HT / Barcelona at FT	14.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Barcelona at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Aucas at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Barcelona at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Aucas at HT / Barcelona at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Barcelona at HT / Aucas at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas to score last	47.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Barcelona to score last	38.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	13.9%	9.9%	—	—	10.11

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.1%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Aucas to lead by 1 at any time	52.2%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Barcelona to lead by 1 at any time	42.2%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	32.7%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Aucas to lead by 2 at any time	19.9%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Barcelona to lead by 2 at any time	12.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	8.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.99
Aucas to lead by 3 at any time	5.9%	6.6%	—	—	15.14
Barcelona to lead by 3 at any time	3.1%	1.6%	—	—	61.26

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas most corners	55.3%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Barcelona most corners	32.8%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	11.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.7%	83.5%	89.0%	0.94×	1.20
1-4 goals	81.4%	83.5%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	72.9%	72.4%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
2-6 goals	57.0%	59.2%	68.2%	0.87×	1.69
2-5 goals	55.9%	59.2%	66.5%	0.89×	1.69
1-2 goals	55.3%	59.2%	48.9%	1.21×	1.69
2-4 goals	52.6%	53.2%	59.3%	0.90×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.1%	43.6%	47.0%	0.93×	2.30
3-6 goals	30.4%	35.4%	42.0%	0.84×	2.83
3-5 goals	29.3%	30.3%	40.3%	0.75×	3.31
3-4 goals	26.0%	30.2%	33.1%	0.91×	3.31
4-6 goals	12.9%	14.9%	21.4%	0.70×	6.72
4-5 goals	11.8%	14.9%	19.7%	0.75×	6.72
5-6 goals	4.4%	2.6%	9.1%	0.28×	39.13
7+ goals	0.4%	2.5%	1.5%	1.71×	39.32

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aucas never behind	44.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Barcelona never behind	34.0%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	51.5%	0.99×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	48.5%	1.01×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.7%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	40.3%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.1%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.5%	95.5%	96.8%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.2%	95.5%	89.6%	1.07×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	86.7%	87.6%	77.3%	1.13×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	86.1%	87.6%	92.0%	0.95×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	69.2%	66.2%	56.7%	1.17×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	57.4%	58.8%	69.5%	0.85×	1.70
Under 1.5 goals	42.6%	41.2%	30.5%	1.35×	2.43
Over 2.5 goals	30.8%	33.8%	43.3%	0.78×	2.96
Under 0.5 goals	13.9%	12.4%	8.0%	1.55×	8.09
Over 3.5 goals	13.3%	12.4%	22.7%	0.54×	8.09
Over 4.5 goals	4.8%	4.5%	10.4%	0.43×	22.18
Over 5.5 goals	1.5%	4.5%	3.2%	1.42×	22.24

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.2%	98.5%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.5%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.8%	92.5%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	83.9%	81.1%	71.4%	1.14×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	58.1%	55.4%	41.3%	1.34×	1.80
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.9%	44.6%	58.7%	0.76×	2.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	16.1%	18.9%	28.6%	0.66×	5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.2%	7.5%	11.9%	0.63×	13.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.5%	2.8%	3.4%	0.81×	36.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.8%	1.5%	1.83×	36.21

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.1%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	80.6%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	55.6%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Under 0.5 in 1st half	44.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Over 1.5 in 1st half	19.4%	13.9%	—	—	7.22
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.9%	4.2%	—	—	24.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	89.4%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.0%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.0%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.6%	14.5%	—	—	6.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona not to score in both halves	88.1%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Aucas not to score in both halves	83.0%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Aucas to score in both halves	17.0%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Barcelona to score in both halves	11.9%	14.2%	—	—	7.06

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	37.8%	39.8%	48.9%	0.82×	2.51
Only Aucas scores	28.1%	26.1%	25.5%	1.03×	3.83
Only Barcelona scores	20.3%	22.3%	18.0%	1.24×	4.48
Neither team scores	13.9%	10.9%	8.0%	1.37×	9.14

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	28.8%	25.0%	22.7%	1.10×	4.00
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	25.0%	26.4%	0.95×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	17.5%	17.4%	20.8%	0.84×	5.74
Exactly 0 goals	13.9%	12.1%	8.0%	1.51×	8.27
Exactly 4 goals	8.5%	7.6%	12.5%	0.61×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	3.3%	4.4%	7.4%	0.59×	22.67
6 or more goals	1.5%	4.4%	3.2%	1.39×	22.70

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.8%	39.6%	—	—	2.52
No goals in 2nd half	32.0%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
2+ goals in 2nd half	31.2%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona not to win both halves	94.9%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Aucas not to win both halves	91.2%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Aucas to win both halves	8.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.43
Barcelona to win both halves	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.70

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to win neither half	59.5%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Aucas to win either half	50.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Aucas to win neither half	49.1%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Barcelona to win either half	40.5%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona not to win to nil	79.7%	78.1%	82.0%	0.95×	1.28
Aucas not to win to nil	71.9%	75.3%	74.5%	1.01×	1.33
Aucas to win to nil	28.1%	24.7%	25.5%	0.97×	4.05
Barcelona to win to nil	20.3%	21.9%	18.0%	1.22×	4.56

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.2%	27.6%	26.4%	1.04×	3.63
Aucas by 1	24.3%	24.2%	24.9%	0.97×	4.14
Barcelona by 1	19.7%	16.9%	18.2%	0.93×	5.91
Aucas by 2	11.2%	11.8%	11.9%	0.99×	8.48
Barcelona by 2	7.3%	7.3%	7.4%	0.98×	13.78
Aucas by 3+	4.9%	2.7%	7.8%	0.35×	36.92
Barcelona by 3+	2.4%	2.7%	4.3%	0.63×	37.00