Augsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-1.14 – -1.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
33.9%
Draw
29.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
36.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWDWWLW last 10
scored 17
from 23.1 xG
conceded 18
from 20.1 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 15.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLDWLDLLDD last 10
scored 16
from 15.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 1.14 xGEintracht Frankfurt 1.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 7' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 9' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
| 18' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 20' |
Augsburg |
Frank Onyeka | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Essende |
| 34' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 42' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 45' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 62' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 63' |
Augsburg |
Mërgim Berisha | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 66' |
Augsburg |
Mërgim Berisha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Frank Onyeka |
| 68' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Chrislain Matsima | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 74' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Tuta | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 76' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 80' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Tuta | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 86' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Henri Koudossou |
| 88' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Frank Onyeka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.64 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Samuel Essende FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Mert Kömür AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mërgim Berisha Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Fredrik Jensen Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Henri Koudossou Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Tuta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| Ellyes Skhiri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.77 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Michy Batshuayi FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Farès Chaïbi MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Jean Négoce Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.85 |
| Nnamdi Collins Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |