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Augsburg v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 20 September 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

2–3
2.80 – 1.26 xG
Shots
29 – 5
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
22 – 4
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.80 – +1.74
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Armindo Sieb 12' — goalJonathan Burkardt 14' — goalKeven Schlotterbeck 24' — goalJonathan Burkardt 48' — goalSamuel Essende 56' — goal
Augsburg 2.80 xGMainz 05 1.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ruben Vargas 5' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Armindo Sieb 12' — Goal (0.45 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 14' — Goal (0.12 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 21' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Keven Schlotterbeck 24' — Goal (0.13 xG, Set Piece)Keven Schlotterbeck 26' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Ruben Vargas 26' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ruben Vargas 29' — Missed Shot (0.37 xG, Set Piece)Elvis Rexhbecaj 36' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Elvis Rexhbecaj 41' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Elvis Rexhbecaj 44' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dimitris Giannoulis 46' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Ruben Vargas 47' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Hong Hyun-Seok 48' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Burkardt 48' — Goal (0.58 xG, Open Play)Elvis Rexhbecaj 50' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Ruben Vargas 51' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Dimitris Giannoulis 54' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 54' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 56' — Goal (0.62 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 59' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Dimitris Giannoulis 63' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Steve Mounie 65' — Saved Shot (0.53 xG, Open Play)Phillip Tietz 78' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Frank Onyeka 79' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Yusuf Kabadayi 82' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Steve Mounie 83' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Dimitris Giannoulis 85' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Phillip Tietz 85' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Yusuf Kabadayi 85' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Steve Mounie 89' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Steve Mounie 89' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Steve Mounie 93' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Arne Maier 95' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Augsburg attacking right Mainz 05 attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Augsburg Ruben Vargas 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Maximilian Bauer
12' Mainz 05 Armindo Sieb 0.45 Open Play Goal
14' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.12 Open Play Goal Philipp Mwene
21' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Armindo Sieb
24' Augsburg Keven Schlotterbeck 0.13 Set Piece Left Foot Goal Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
26' Augsburg Keven Schlotterbeck 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Elvis Rexhbecaj
26' Augsburg Ruben Vargas 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Samuel Essende
29' Augsburg Ruben Vargas 0.37 Set Piece Missed Shot Marius Wolf
36' Augsburg Elvis Rexhbecaj 0.08 Open Play Saved Shot Marius Wolf
41' Augsburg Elvis Rexhbecaj 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marius Wolf
44' Augsburg Elvis Rexhbecaj 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ruben Vargas
46' Augsburg Dimitris Giannoulis 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
47' Augsburg Ruben Vargas 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Samuel Essende
48' Mainz 05 Hong Hyun-Seok 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Aymen Barkok
48' Mainz 05 Jonathan Burkardt 0.58 Open Play Right Foot Goal Hong Hyun-Seok
50' Augsburg Elvis Rexhbecaj 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
51' Augsburg Ruben Vargas 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
54' Augsburg Dimitris Giannoulis 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Frank Onyeka
54' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Marius Wolf
56' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.62 Open Play Goal Dimitris Giannoulis
59' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot
63' Augsburg Dimitris Giannoulis 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
65' Augsburg Steve Mounie 0.53 Open Play Saved Shot Samuel Essende
78' Augsburg Phillip Tietz 0.03 From Corner Blocked Shot Arne Maier
79' Augsburg Frank Onyeka 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Elvis Rexhbecaj
82' Augsburg Yusuf Kabadayi 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Arne Maier
83' Augsburg Steve Mounie 0.10 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
85' Augsburg Dimitris Giannoulis 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
85' Augsburg Phillip Tietz 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
85' Augsburg Yusuf Kabadayi 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Arne Maier
89' Augsburg Steve Mounie 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
89' Augsburg Steve Mounie 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Arne Maier
93' Augsburg Steve Mounie 0.03 Open Play Blocked Shot Dimitris Giannoulis
95' Augsburg Arne Maier 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yusuf Kabadayi

Players

Augsburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Keven Schlotterbeck DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.31
Dimitris Giannoulis DML 90 0 1 4 2 0.14 0.65 1.00
Frank Onyeka MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.04 0.49
Nediljko Labrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.20 0.22
Elvis Rexhbecaj AMC 82 0 0 4 2 0.20 0.08 0.88
Marius Wolf DMR 82 0 0 0 4 0.00 0.54 0.28
Ruben Vargas AMC 74 0 0 5 1 0.56 0.02 0.32
Samuel Essende FW 72 1 0 3 3 0.70 0.66 1.40
Kristijan Jakic MC 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Maximilian Bauer DC 48 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.22
Steve Mounie Sub 42 0 0 5 0 0.79 0.00 0.75
Arne Maier Sub 27 0 0 1 4 0.03 0.18 0.13
Phillip Tietz Sub 16 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.07
Yusuf Kabadayi Sub 8 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.03 0.13
Fredrik Jensen Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02

Mainz 05

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jonathan Burkardt FW 90 2 0 3 0 0.76 0.00 0.76
Robin Zentner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Philipp Mwene DML 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.23
Moritz Jenz DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Kaishu Sano MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dominik Kohr DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Andreas Hanche-Olsen DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Anthony Caci DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hong Hyun-Seok AMC 65 0 1 1 1 0.05 0.58 0.75
Aymen Barkok Sub 52 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Armindo Sieb AMC 38 1 0 1 1 0.45 0.06 0.50
Nadiem Amiri MC 34 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maxim Leitsch Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Karim Onisiwo Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Silvan Widmer Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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