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Augsburg v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 August 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

2–2
1.32 – 1.54 xG
Shots
11 – 11
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.47 – +0.46
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Felix Agu 11' — goalElvis Rexhbecaj 15' — goalSamuel Essende 34' — goalJustin Njinmah 57' — goal
Augsburg 1.53 xGWerder Bremen 1.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Arne Engels 8' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Set Piece)Arne Engels 8' — Missed Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 8' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Set Piece)Arne Engels 10' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Felix Agu 11' — Goal (0.29 xG, Open Play)Elvis Rexhbecaj 15' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 24' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mitchell Weiser 33' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 34' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Marvin Ducksch 34' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Samuel Essende 36' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marvin Ducksch 44' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Tim Breithaupt 46' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Mitchell Weiser 47' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mitchell Weiser 47' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marvin Ducksch 52' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 57' — Goal (0.38 xG, Open Play)Milos Veljkovic 61' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Mads Pedersen 71' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Mads Pedersen 71' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Marvin Ducksch 71' — Saved Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Steve Mounie 90' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
Augsburg attacking right Werder Bremen attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
8' Augsburg Arne Engels 0.13 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Samuel Essende
8' Augsburg Arne Engels 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
8' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.30 Set Piece Missed Shot Arne Maier
10' Augsburg Arne Engels 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Phillip Tietz
11' Werder Bremen Felix Agu 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mitchell Weiser
15' Augsburg Elvis Rexhbecaj 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal Phillip Tietz
24' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Keke Maximilian Topp
33' Werder Bremen Mitchell Weiser 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Keke Maximilian Topp
34' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.37 Open Play Goal Tim Breithaupt
34' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mitchell Weiser
36' Augsburg Samuel Essende 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Phillip Tietz
44' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Keke Maximilian Topp
46' Augsburg Tim Breithaupt 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot
47' Werder Bremen Mitchell Weiser 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
47' Werder Bremen Mitchell Weiser 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Felix Agu
52' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Felix Agu
57' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.38 Open Play Goal Mitchell Weiser
61' Werder Bremen Milos Veljkovic 0.13 From Corner Blocked Shot Marvin Ducksch
71' Augsburg Mads Pedersen 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
71' Augsburg Mads Pedersen 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Fredrik Jensen
71' Werder Bremen Marvin Ducksch 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Justin Njinmah
90' Augsburg Steve Mounie 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jeffrey Gouweleeuw

Players

Augsburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Samuel Essende FW 90 1 0 3 1 0.70 0.13 0.40
Mads Pedersen DR 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.37
Elvis Rexhbecaj MC 90 1 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.44
Nediljko Labrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.46
Keven Schlotterbeck DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Arne Engels AMC 82 0 0 3 0 0.60 0.00 0.48
Dimitris Giannoulis DL 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Phillip Tietz FW 68 0 1 0 3 0.00 0.06 0.44
Tim Breithaupt DMC 61 0 1 1 1 0.07 0.37 0.41
Arne Maier MC 61 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.30 0.02
Fredrik Jensen Sub 29 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.00
Niklas Dorsch Sub 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maximilian Bauer Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Steve Mounie Sub 8 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Marius Wolf Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Werder Bremen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Felix Agu DML 90 1 0 1 2 0.29 0.08 0.87
Mitchell Weiser DMR 90 0 2 3 3 0.18 0.75 1.04
Milos Veljkovic DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.99
Jens Stage MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 1.24
Michael Zetterer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.54
Romano Schmid MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.20
Marco Friedl DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.79
Senne Lynen MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.50
Marvin Ducksch FW 83 0 0 4 1 0.55 0.13 0.55
Keke Maximilian Topp FW 48 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.20 0.29
Niklas Stark DC 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Justin Njinmah Sub 42 1 0 1 1 0.38 0.33 0.71
Anthony Jung Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Marco Grüll Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leonardo Bittencourt Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Skelly Alvero Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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