Auxerre v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 16
On target
5 – 7
Shots in box
9 – 9
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.03 – 0.86
Goals − xG
-1.51 – -1.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
23.9%
Draw
22.7%
Lyon win
53.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.98–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.81 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 58% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 1.51 xGLyon 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 12' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 20' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 21' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 24' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 33' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 37' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 45' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oussama El Azzouzi |
| 47' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adam Karabec |
| 48' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 52' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.60 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 54' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 54' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Lyon |
Tanner Tessmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 66' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oussama El Azzouzi |
| 67' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 69' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 81' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 87' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 91' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tanner Tessmann |
| 91' |
Lyon |
Martín Satriano | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Afonso Moreira |
| 92' |
Lyon |
Adil Hamdani | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Lyon |
Mathys de Carvalho | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ainsley Maitland-Niles |
| 92' |
Lyon |
Moussa Niakhate | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.96 | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| Danny Namaso FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Rudy Matondo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| Sékou Mara FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fredrik Oppegård Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Assane Diousse Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Osman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corentin Tolisso DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Afonso Moreira AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.73 | 0.26 |
| Tanner Tessmann DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| Abner DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Adam Karabec AMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Khalis Merah AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pavel Sulc Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Mathys de Carvalho Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adil Hamdani Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |