Auxerre v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 23 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 16
On target
0 – 8
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.49
Goals − xG
-0.35 – -1.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
18.0%
Draw
18.6%
Paris Saint Germain win
63.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.91–1.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.84–2.06 | 0-2 12% | 55% | 50% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 0.35 xGParis Saint Germain 2.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 1' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.20 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 22' |
 Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 35' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ibrahim Mbaye | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Illia Zabarnyi | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Vitinha |
| 35' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 52' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oussama El Azzouzi |
| 53' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Mbaye |
| 55' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rudy Matondo |
| 57' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 66' |
Auxerre |
Rudy Matondo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oussama El Azzouzi |
| 68' |
Auxerre |
Oussama El Azzouzi | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 72' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 74' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 78' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 82' |
Auxerre |
Rudy Matondo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 90' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Elisha Owusu |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 1.58 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 1.08 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Senny Mayulu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.62 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Beraldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.86 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Désiré Doué Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.84 | 0.88 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Danny Namaso ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Marvin Senaya DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Naouirou Ahamada MR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rudy Matondo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Romain Faivre Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Elisha Owusu Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |