Bahia v São Paulo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Bahia

14:00

São Paulo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,268h before kick-off

Bahia win

48.6%

model 49.8%

Draw

28.0%

model 26.7%

São Paulo win

23.4%

model 23.5%

492823

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.8%
2-1 9.6%
1-0 9.6%
2-0 8.9%
0-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.6%	Under 2.5	48.4%
BTTS yes	54.6%	BTTS no	45.4%
Bahia 1+	81.0%	Bahia 2+	49.5%
São Paulo 1+	65.9%	São Paulo 2+	29.3%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Bahia carry the stronger rating, 1571 Elo against 1467.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bahia have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for the draw and 23.4% for São Paulo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.66 for Bahia and 1.08 for São Paulo.

Why Bahia

Bahia carry the stronger rating, 1571 Elo against 1467. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.0%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why São Paulo can win

Nothing in the data singles out São Paulo.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Bahia, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for São Paulo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Bahia: 54% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. São Paulo: 56% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Bahia are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	502822	1.55–0.94	1-1 13%	45%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia to win	50.2%	51.4%	48.9%	1.05×	1.95
Draw	28.1%	27.9%	27.2%	1.02×	3.59
São Paulo to win	21.7%	24.4%	24.0%	1.02×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia & not both score	29.5%	25.2%	28.0%	0.90×	3.97
Bahia & both teams score	20.7%	21.9%	21.0%	1.04×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.5%	17.9%	20.7%	0.87×	5.58
São Paulo & not both score	11.7%	13.3%	13.9%	0.96×	7.55
São Paulo & both teams score	10.0%	8.4%	10.4%	0.81×	11.92
Draw & not both score	9.6%	8.4%	6.7%	1.25×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia & over 1.5	38.6%	34.9%	36.8%	0.95×	2.87
Bahia & under 3.5	36.1%	34.9%	36.8%	0.95×	2.87
Bahia & over 2.5	28.6%	26.0%	27.5%	0.94×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	22.9%	21.7%	20.2%	1.07×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	22.9%	21.7%	20.2%	1.07×	4.62
Bahia & under 2.5	21.6%	21.7%	21.5%	1.01×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	20.7%	0.87×	5.56
São Paulo & under 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
São Paulo & over 1.5	15.1%	18.0%	17.2%	1.05×	5.56
Bahia & over 3.5	14.1%	12.9%	12.3%	1.05×	7.77
Bahia & under 1.5	11.7%	12.9%	12.3%	1.05×	7.77
São Paulo & over 2.5	11.4%	12.9%	13.2%	0.97×	7.77
São Paulo & under 2.5	10.3%	12.9%	11.0%	1.17×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	6.7%	1.18×	12.69
São Paulo & under 1.5	6.6%	7.9%	7.0%	1.12×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.70
São Paulo & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia (1UP)	63.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
São Paulo (1UP)	38.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia (2UP)	50.2%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
São Paulo (2UP)	21.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia to win 2nd half	40.6%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
2nd half drawn	37.7%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
São Paulo to win 2nd half	21.8%	23.1%	—	—	4.33

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (+2.5)	89.1%	88.5%	90.8%	0.98×	1.13
Bahia (+0.5)	78.3%	78.4%	76.0%	1.03×	1.28
São Paulo (+1.5)	73.3%	73.7%	76.8%	0.96×	1.36
Bahia (-0.5)	50.2%	52.3%	48.9%	1.07×	1.91
São Paulo (+0.5)	49.8%	47.7%	51.1%	0.93×	2.10
Bahia (-1.5)	26.7%	26.3%	23.2%	1.13×	3.80
São Paulo (-0.5)	21.7%	21.6%	24.0%	0.90×	4.64
Bahia (-2.5)	10.9%	11.5%	9.2%	1.24×	8.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to concede	78.7%	79.0%	79.6%	0.99×	1.27
São Paulo clean sheet	21.3%	21.0%	20.4%	1.03×	4.77

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to concede in 1st half	48.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
São Paulo clean sheet in 1st half	51.4%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo over 2.5 corners	79.5%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
São Paulo under 6.5 corners	72.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
São Paulo over 3.5 corners	65.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
São Paulo under 5.5 corners	61.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
São Paulo over 4.5 corners	51.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
São Paulo under 4.5 corners	48.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
São Paulo over 5.5 corners	38.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
São Paulo under 3.5 corners	34.2%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
São Paulo over 6.5 corners	27.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
São Paulo under 2.5 corners	20.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
São Paulo under 2.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
São Paulo under 1.5 goals	75.8%	76.2%	72.0%	1.06×	1.31
São Paulo over 0.5 goals	60.9%	62.9%	65.4%	0.96×	1.59
São Paulo under 0.5 goals	39.1%	37.1%	34.6%	1.07×	2.70
São Paulo over 1.5 goals	24.2%	23.8%	28.0%	0.85×	4.21
São Paulo over 2.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	9.1%	0.84×	13.04
São Paulo over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.5%	2.1%	1.18×	40.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo under 1.5 in 1st half	94.5%	94.3%	—	—	1.06
São Paulo under 0.5 in 1st half	68.7%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
São Paulo over 0.5 in 1st half	31.3%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
São Paulo over 1.5 in 1st half	5.5%	5.7%	—	—	17.40

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia (away no bet)	64.2%	62.1%	64.2%	0.97×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	35.8%	37.9%	35.8%	1.06×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo even goals	57.6%	56.9%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
São Paulo odd goals	42.4%	43.1%	45.1%	0.96×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.2%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.8%	12.3%	—	—	8.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.1%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.9%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.9%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Bahia to score 2+ in a row	38.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.4%	—	—	6.12
São Paulo to score 2+ in a row	17.5%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Bahia to score 3+ in a row	14.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.17
São Paulo to score 3+ in a row	3.8%	2.6%	—	—	38.25

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia corners (+3.5)	85.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Bahia corners (+2.5)	79.7%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Bahia corners (+1.5)	72.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
São Paulo corners (+3.5)	71.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
São Paulo corners (+2.5)	63.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
São Paulo corners (+1.5)	54.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Bahia corners (-1.5)	45.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Bahia corners (-2.5)	36.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Bahia corners (-3.5)	28.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
São Paulo corners (-1.5)	27.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
São Paulo corners (-2.5)	20.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
São Paulo corners (-3.5)	14.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	43.7%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
0-8 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
9-11 corners	26.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	70.2%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	64.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	61.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	56.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	52.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	47.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	43.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	38.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 12.5 corners	35.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	29.8%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Under 7.5 corners	21.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.3%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.73
1-0	11.7%	11.5%	12.3%	0.93×	8.73
2-0	10.0%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.48
2-1	9.4%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.48
0-0	9.6%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
0-1	6.6%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.48
1-2	5.7%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
3-0	5.1%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.48
3-1	4.8%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.46
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.48
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.46
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.48
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.49
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.74×	58.49
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.48
4-1	1.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.48
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.48
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.74×	58.49
Any other score	2.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.48
0-2	3.7%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.47
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.48
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia leading at HT (DNB)	67.4%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
São Paulo leading at HT (DNB)	32.6%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia or draw (1X)	78.3%	75.6%	76.0%	0.99×	1.32
Bahia or São Paulo (12)	71.9%	72.1%	72.8%	0.99×	1.39
São Paulo or draw (X2)	49.8%	48.6%	51.1%	0.95×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia or draw at HT	82.1%	84.4%	—	—	1.18
São Paulo or draw at HT	63.0%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Bahia or São Paulo at HT	54.9%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia or draw (1UP)	78.3%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
São Paulo or draw (1UP)	49.8%	52.9%	—	—	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia or draw in 2nd half	78.2%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
Bahia or São Paulo in 2nd half	62.3%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
São Paulo or draw in 2nd half	59.4%	59.1%	—	—	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.5%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia (DNB)	69.8%	67.2%	67.0%	1.00×	1.49
São Paulo (DNB)	30.2%	32.8%	33.0%	0.99×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia to score first	56.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
São Paulo to score first	34.2%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
No goal scored	9.6%	7.6%	—	—	13.17

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.8%	51.4%	48.2%	1.07×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.2%	48.6%	51.8%	0.94×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.4%	41.6%	38.9%	1.07×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	35.8%	38.5%	38.2%	1.01×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.3%	12.3%	13.7%	0.90×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.4%	9.6%	0.88×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.9%	85.6%	87.3%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.1%	14.4%	12.7%	1.13×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.4%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.6%	25.8%	—	—	3.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.8%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	21.8%	20.8%	—	—	4.81
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	3.8%	5.0%	—	—	19.93

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.6%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.4%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	50.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.3%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
0-1 goals	27.8%	26.5%	25.6%	1.03×	3.78
4-6 goals	22.5%	22.8%	24.2%	0.94×	4.38
7+ goals	1.4%	1.8%	0.6%	2.87×	54.66

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to score exactly 0	39.1%	36.0%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
São Paulo to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	37.6%	0.96×	2.78
São Paulo to score exactly 2	17.2%	19.6%	19.1%	1.02×	5.11
São Paulo to score 3+	6.9%	8.5%	9.1%	0.93×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia to score exactly 1	32.9%	32.7%	34.2%	0.95×	3.06
Bahia to score exactly 2	25.5%	26.5%	27.2%	0.97×	3.77
Bahia to score exactly 0	21.3%	23.2%	20.4%	1.14×	4.30
Bahia to score 3+	20.3%	23.2%	18.5%	1.26×	4.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.1%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Bahia leading at HT	37.0%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
São Paulo leading at HT	17.9%	15.6%	—	—	6.42

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia -1: 2	49.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Bahia -1: 1	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Bahia -1: X	23.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (0:1)	49.8%	46.0%	51.1%	0.90×	2.17
Bahia (0:1)	26.7%	27.0%	23.2%	1.16×	3.71
Draw (0:1)	23.6%	24.3%	25.8%	0.94×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (0:2)	73.3%	75.7%	76.8%	0.99×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.7%	15.3%	14.2%	1.08×	6.55
Bahia (0:2)	10.9%	11.0%	9.2%	1.19×	9.13

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (0:3)	89.1%	90.8%	90.8%	1.00×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.3%	5.8%	6.7%	0.87×	17.16
Bahia (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo (0:4)	96.3%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.6%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.37
Bahia (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.1%	1.07×	83.56

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia (1:0)	78.3%	78.4%	76.0%	1.03×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	13.8%	12.8%	14.7%	0.88×	7.80
São Paulo (1:0)	7.9%	6.9%	9.6%	0.73×	14.43

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia (2:0)	92.1%	93.9%	90.4%	1.04×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	5.8%	6.5%	6.2%	1.04×	15.50
São Paulo (2:0)	2.1%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	44.24

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.4%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	28.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia to concede	60.9%	63.4%	65.4%	0.97×	1.58
Bahia clean sheet	39.1%	36.6%	34.6%	1.06×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia clean sheet in 1st half	68.7%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Bahia to concede in 1st half	31.3%	31.3%	—	—	3.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia over 2.5 corners	87.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Bahia over 3.5 corners	76.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Bahia over 4.5 corners	64.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Bahia under 6.5 corners	59.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Bahia over 5.5 corners	52.4%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Bahia under 5.5 corners	47.6%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Bahia over 6.5 corners	41.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Bahia under 4.5 corners	35.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Bahia under 3.5 corners	23.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Bahia under 2.5 corners	13.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia under 3.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Bahia under 2.5 goals	79.7%	77.8%	81.5%	0.95×	1.29
Bahia over 0.5 goals	78.7%	77.8%	79.6%	0.98×	1.29
Bahia under 1.5 goals	54.3%	53.3%	54.5%	0.98×	1.88
Bahia over 1.5 goals	45.7%	46.7%	45.5%	1.03×	2.14
Bahia under 0.5 goals	21.3%	22.2%	20.4%	1.09×	4.50
Bahia over 2.5 goals	20.3%	22.2%	18.5%	1.20×	4.50
Bahia over 3.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	5.7%	1.35×	12.91

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia under 1.5 in 1st half	85.6%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
Bahia over 0.5 in 1st half	48.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Bahia under 0.5 in 1st half	51.4%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Bahia over 1.5 in 1st half	14.4%	10.3%	—	—	9.66

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	56.4%	56.7%	53.1%	1.07×	1.76
São Paulo (home no bet)	43.6%	43.3%	46.9%	0.92×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia even goals	52.3%	50.6%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Bahia odd goals	47.7%	49.4%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.5%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
HT 1-0	23.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-1	13.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 1-1	9.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 2-0	7.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
Any other HT score	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.34
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.39
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.57

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia at HT / Bahia at FT	30.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Bahia at FT	17.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
São Paulo at HT / São Paulo at FT	11.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / São Paulo at FT	9.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.61
Bahia at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
São Paulo at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
São Paulo at HT / Bahia at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Bahia at HT / São Paulo at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia to score last	56.4%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
São Paulo to score last	34.0%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
No goal scored	9.6%	7.6%	—	—	13.17

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.4%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Bahia to lead by 1 at any time	63.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.1%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
São Paulo to lead by 1 at any time	38.5%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Bahia to lead by 2 at any time	32.3%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Bahia to lead by 3 at any time	12.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
São Paulo to lead by 2 at any time	11.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
São Paulo to lead by 3 at any time	2.9%	1.6%	—	—	61.45

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia most corners	55.1%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
São Paulo most corners	35.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	9.1%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	87.4%	88.9%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.8%	78.6%	81.8%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	70.8%	72.4%	73.9%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.1%	69.0%	69.9%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.5%	68.9%	68.8%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.4%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.3%	48.7%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.2%	48.7%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.9%	43.6%	47.1%	0.92×	2.30
3-5 goals	41.1%	43.6%	43.2%	1.01×	2.30
3-4 goals	34.6%	35.4%	36.1%	0.98×	2.83
4-6 goals	22.5%	24.5%	24.2%	1.01×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.8%	18.6%	20.2%	0.92×	5.37
5-6 goals	9.3%	8.7%	11.1%	0.78×	11.43
7+ goals	1.4%	2.5%	0.6%	4.00×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bahia never behind	51.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
São Paulo never behind	26.6%	30.0%	—	—	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.2%	50.8%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.8%	49.2%	50.8%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.4%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.9%	95.5%	95.4%	1.00×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.4%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.3%	87.7%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.1%	77.3%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	72.2%	72.5%	74.4%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	54.8%	52.5%	52.4%	1.00×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	45.2%	47.5%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.8%	27.5%	25.6%	1.07×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	23.9%	22.7%	24.7%	0.92×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	10.7%	12.3%	11.6%	1.06×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	9.6%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.91
Over 5.5 goals	4.1%	4.5%	4.6%	0.98×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.6%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.6%	97.2%	95.0%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.7%	86.7%	86.6%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.6%	67.4%	68.0%	0.99×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	61.9%	62.1%	65.0%	0.95×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.1%	37.9%	35.0%	1.08×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.4%	32.6%	32.0%	1.02×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.3%	13.3%	13.4%	0.99×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.4%	2.8%	5.0%	0.56×	36.09
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.4%	2.8%	0.7%	4.17×	36.18

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.9%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.1%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.53

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.3%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.0%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.2%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.8%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.0%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo not to score in both halves	86.5%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Bahia not to score in both halves	71.6%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Bahia to score in both halves	28.4%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
São Paulo to score in both halves	13.5%	14.3%	—	—	7.00

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.2%	50.5%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Only Bahia scores	29.5%	26.1%	28.0%	0.93×	3.83
Only São Paulo scores	11.7%	10.9%	13.9%	0.79×	9.15
Neither team scores	9.6%	7.2%	6.7%	1.08×	13.89

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.0%	25.0%	26.9%	0.93×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.3%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	18.2%	17.4%	19.1%	0.91×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	13.2%	12.1%	13.2%	0.91×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	9.6%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	6.6%	7.6%	7.2%	1.07×	13.09
6 or more goals	4.1%	4.4%	4.6%	0.96×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.8%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
1 goal in 2nd half	33.2%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	24.0%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo not to win both halves	96.0%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Bahia not to win both halves	84.8%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Bahia to win both halves	15.2%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
São Paulo to win both halves	4.0%	2.8%	—	—	35.56

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo to win neither half	64.4%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Bahia to win either half	62.3%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Bahia to win neither half	37.7%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
São Paulo to win either half	35.6%	34.9%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
São Paulo not to win to nil	88.3%	88.2%	86.1%	1.02×	1.13
Bahia not to win to nil	70.5%	75.3%	72.0%	1.05×	1.33
Bahia to win to nil	29.5%	24.7%	28.0%	0.88×	4.04
São Paulo to win to nil	11.7%	11.8%	13.9%	0.85×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.1%	27.9%	27.2%	1.02×	3.59
Bahia by 1	23.6%	24.2%	25.8%	0.94×	4.14
Bahia by 2	15.7%	16.9%	14.2%	1.19×	5.91
São Paulo by 1	13.8%	11.8%	14.7%	0.81×	8.47
Bahia by 3+	10.9%	11.8%	9.2%	1.28×	8.48
São Paulo by 2	5.8%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.79
São Paulo by 3+	2.1%	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×	37.02