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Banfield v Rosario Central — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 6 October 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Banfield win
26.5%
model 26.1%
Draw
26.6%
model 27.7%
Rosario Central win
46.9%
model 46.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.1%
  2. 0-1 12.5%
  3. 0-0 9.5%
  4. 0-2 9.0%
  5. 1-2 8.9%

Goals

Over 2.542.8% Under 2.557.2%
BTTS yes47.7% BTTS no52.3%
Banfield 1+62.8% Banfield 2+26.0%
Rosario Central 1+75.4% Rosario Central 2+41.0%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.40. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Rosario Central (DNB)
Draw no bet · usually 40%
62.9% fair odds 1.59
strong signal · 255 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Banfield not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Rosario Central carry the stronger rating, 1615 Elo against 1441.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rosario Central have an estimated 46.9% win probability, against 26.6% for the draw and 26.5% for Banfield. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.99 for Banfield and 1.40 for Rosario Central.

Why Banfield

Nothing in the data singles out Banfield.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. A combined 2.39 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Rosario Central can win

Rosario Central carry the stronger rating, 1615 Elo against 1441.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Banfield, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rosario Central, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Banfield: 39% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rosario Central: 61% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Rosario Central are the model's most likely outcome at 46.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.99–1.40 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.02–1.35 1-1 13% 42% 48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to win 43.9% 43.0% 27.8% 1.55× 2.32
Banfield to win 28.0% 27.9% 41.7% 0.67× 3.59
Draw 28.1% 27.9% 30.6% 0.91× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central & not both score 26.2% 25.2% 17.2% 1.46× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 18.4% 17.9% 15.9% 1.12× 5.58
Rosario Central & both teams score 17.6% 17.9% 10.7% 1.68× 5.58
Banfield & not both score 16.2% 17.9% 27.8% 0.65× 5.58
Banfield & both teams score 11.8% 13.3% 14.1% 0.94× 7.55
Draw & not both score 9.7% 8.4% 14.8% 0.57× 11.92
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central & under 3.5 33.2% 30.9% 23.6% 1.31× 3.24
Rosario Central & over 1.5 31.7% 30.9% 17.5% 1.76× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 22.9% 21.7% 28.1% 0.77× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 22.9% 21.7% 28.1% 0.77× 4.62
Rosario Central & over 2.5 23.2% 21.7% 13.2% 1.64× 4.62
Banfield & under 3.5 22.3% 21.7% 34.9% 0.62× 4.62
Rosario Central & under 2.5 20.7% 21.7% 14.7% 1.47× 4.62
Banfield & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 27.6% 0.65× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.4% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Banfield & over 2.5 14.0% 12.9% 18.2% 0.71× 7.77
Banfield & under 2.5 14.0% 12.9% 23.6% 0.54× 7.77
Rosario Central & under 1.5 12.2% 12.9% 10.3% 1.25× 7.77
Rosario Central & over 3.5 10.7% 12.9% 4.2% 3.03× 7.77
Banfield & under 1.5 9.1% 7.9% 14.2% 0.55× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 9.7% 7.9% 14.8% 0.53× 12.69
Banfield & over 3.5 5.7% 7.9% 7.0% 1.13× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 5.2% 7.9% 2.6% 2.99× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 5.2% 7.9% 2.6% 2.99× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (1UP) 58.0% 58.1% 1.72
Banfield (1UP) 43.9% 39.5% 2.53
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (2UP) 43.9% 47.7% 2.09
Banfield (2UP) 28.0% 24.9% 4.02
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 38.2% 36.1% 2.77
Rosario Central to win 2nd half 37.7% 36.1% 2.77
Banfield to win 2nd half 24.0% 23.2% 4.31
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (+2.5) 97.0% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Rosario Central (+1.5) 89.4% 88.5% 82.5% 1.07× 1.13
Rosario Central (+0.5) 72.0% 73.7% 58.3% 1.27× 1.36
Banfield (+0.5) 56.1% 57.0% 72.2% 0.79× 1.75
Rosario Central (-0.5) 43.9% 43.0% 27.8% 1.55× 2.33
Banfield (-0.5) 28.0% 26.3% 41.7% 0.63× 3.80
Banfield (-1.5) 10.6% 11.5% 17.5% 0.65× 8.71
Banfield (-2.5) 3.0% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 26.88
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to concede 64.1% 67.3% 68.1% 0.99× 1.49
Rosario Central clean sheet 35.9% 32.7% 31.9% 1.03× 3.06
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central clean sheet in 1st half 64.4% 65.0% 1.54
Rosario Central to concede in 1st half 35.6% 35.0% 2.86
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 6.5 corners 83.3% 81.5% 1.23
Rosario Central over 2.5 corners 74.6% 71.6% 1.40
Rosario Central under 5.5 corners 73.0% 71.6% 1.40
Rosario Central under 4.5 corners 59.1% 57.1% 1.75
Rosario Central over 3.5 corners 57.6% 57.1% 1.75
Rosario Central under 3.5 corners 42.4% 42.9% 2.33
Rosario Central over 4.5 corners 40.9% 42.9% 2.33
Rosario Central over 5.5 corners 27.0% 28.4% 3.52
Rosario Central under 2.5 corners 25.4% 28.4% 3.52
Rosario Central over 6.5 corners 16.7% 18.5% 5.40
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 3.5 goals 95.2% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Rosario Central under 2.5 goals 84.5% 81.4% 93.3% 0.87× 1.23
Rosario Central over 0.5 goals 74.1% 72.0% 57.6% 1.25× 1.39
Rosario Central under 1.5 goals 60.9% 62.9% 78.2% 0.80× 1.59
Rosario Central over 1.5 goals 39.1% 37.1% 21.8% 1.70× 2.70
Rosario Central under 0.5 goals 25.9% 28.0% 42.4% 0.66× 3.57
Rosario Central over 2.5 goals 15.5% 18.6% 6.7% 2.79× 5.38
Rosario Central over 3.5 goals 4.8% 2.5% 1.1% 2.15× 40.62
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central under 1.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.2% 1.12
Rosario Central under 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 62.4% 1.60
Rosario Central over 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 37.6% 2.66
Rosario Central over 1.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.8% 9.23
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 50.1% 51.2% 42.3% 1.21× 1.96
Banfield (away no bet) 49.9% 48.8% 57.7% 0.85× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central even goals 53.3% 52.8% 58.4% 0.90× 1.89
Rosario Central odd goals 46.7% 47.2% 41.6% 1.13× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.5% 87.8% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.5% 12.2% 8.21
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 56.1% 60.0% 1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals 43.9% 40.0% 2.50
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 48.8% 45.9% 2.18
Rosario Central to score 2+ in a row 32.4% 29.0% 3.45
Banfield to score 2+ in a row 20.7% 19.5% 5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row 15.5% 16.3% 6.14
Rosario Central to score 3+ in a row 10.6% 12.1% 8.25
Banfield to score 3+ in a row 5.0% 5.6% 17.88
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield corners (+3.5) 85.9% 84.5% 1.18
Rosario Central corners (+3.5) 84.6% 79.7% 1.25
Banfield corners (+2.5) 78.3% 74.9% 1.34
Rosario Central corners (+2.5) 76.7% 74.9% 1.34
Banfield corners (+1.5) 68.6% 65.8% 1.52
Rosario Central corners (+1.5) 66.6% 65.8% 1.52
Banfield corners (-1.5) 33.4% 34.2% 2.92
Rosario Central corners (-1.5) 31.4% 34.2% 2.92
Banfield corners (-2.5) 23.3% 25.1% 3.98
Rosario Central corners (-2.5) 21.7% 25.1% 3.98
Banfield corners (-3.5) 15.4% 20.3% 4.94
Rosario Central corners (-3.5) 14.1% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 52.6% 45.2% 2.21
9-11 corners 28.4% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 19.0% 22.7% 4.41
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 87.0% 83.0% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 81.0% 80.8% 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 73.2% 72.6% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 63.6% 63.4% 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 59.2% 57.8% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 52.6% 53.3% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 47.4% 46.7% 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 40.8% 42.2% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 36.4% 36.6% 2.73
Over 10.5 corners 26.8% 27.4% 3.66
Over 11.5 corners 19.0% 19.2% 5.20
Over 12.5 corners 13.0% 17.0% 5.88
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.2% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.73
0-1 12.2% 11.5% 10.3% 1.11× 8.73
0-0 9.7% 7.4% 14.8% 0.50× 13.48
0-2 8.5% 7.4% 4.5% 1.66× 13.48
1-0 9.1% 7.4% 14.2% 0.52× 13.48
1-2 8.7% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.48
2-1 6.6% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.48
2-0 4.9% 1.7% 9.5% 0.18× 58.46
4-0 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.49
4-1 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.49
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.49
Any other score 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.48
0-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.47
0-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.48
1-3 3.9% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.47
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.48
2-2 4.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.46
2-3 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.48
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.1% 14.91× 58.49
3-0 1.7% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.48
3-1 2.2% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.48
3-2 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.48
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 14.91× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central leading at HT (DNB) 56.4% 57.7% 1.73
Banfield leading at HT (DNB) 43.6% 42.3% 2.36
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw (X2) 72.0% 72.1% 58.3% 1.24× 1.39
Banfield or Rosario Central (12) 71.9% 72.1% 69.4% 1.04× 1.39
Banfield or draw (1X) 56.1% 57.0% 72.2% 0.79× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw at HT 76.9% 79.8% 1.25
Banfield or draw at HT 70.1% 74.2% 1.35
Banfield or Rosario Central at HT 52.9% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw (1UP) 72.0% 80.1% 1.25
Banfield or draw (1UP) 56.1% 62.6% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central or draw in 2nd half 76.0% 76.8% 1.30
Banfield or draw in 2nd half 62.3% 63.9% 1.57
Banfield or Rosario Central in 2nd half 61.8% 63.9% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.9% 69.4% 1.44
Neither half drawn 33.1% 30.6% 3.26
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (DNB) 61.1% 62.8% 39.9% 1.57× 1.59
Banfield (DNB) 38.9% 37.2% 60.1% 0.62× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score first 51.4% 53.8% 1.86
Banfield to score first 38.9% 33.0% 3.03
No goal scored 9.7% 7.6% 13.17
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.1% 51.4% 59.5% 0.86× 1.95
Both teams to score 47.9% 48.6% 40.5% 1.20× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 44.4% 41.6% 52.9% 0.79× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 34.6% 34.3% 27.2% 1.26× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 13.2% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 7.8% 8.4% 6.8% 1.24× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.3% 85.6% 94.2% 0.91× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.7% 14.4% 5.8% 2.46× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.3% 75.0% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.7% 25.0% 4.01
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.0% 66.6% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 21.0% 20.8% 4.82
Both score 1st half only 11.3% 10.7% 9.32
Both score in both halves 3.7% 5.0% 19.97
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.1% 85.7% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.9% 14.3% 7.00
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 52.8% 53.4% 1.87
A goal in each half 47.2% 46.6% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.4% 47.4% 47.4% 1.00× 2.11
0-1 goals 31.0% 30.7% 39.1% 0.79× 3.25
4-6 goals 20.5% 22.8% 13.3% 1.71× 4.39
7+ goals 1.1% 1.8% 0.5% 3.99× 54.69
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score exactly 1 35.0% 33.8% 35.9% 0.94× 2.96
Rosario Central to score exactly 0 25.9% 27.4% 42.4% 0.65× 3.65
Rosario Central to score exactly 2 23.6% 22.4% 15.3% 1.47× 4.46
Rosario Central to score 3+ 15.5% 19.6% 6.7% 2.94× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.6% 36.6% 0.97× 2.81
Banfield to score exactly 0 35.9% 35.6% 31.9% 1.12× 2.81
Banfield to score exactly 2 18.8% 18.9% 21.8% 0.87× 5.29
Banfield to score 3+ 8.5% 10.3% 10.0% 1.03× 9.71
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.1% 52.4% 1.91
Rosario Central leading at HT 29.9% 25.8% 3.88
Banfield leading at HT 23.1% 20.2% 4.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central -1: 1 56.1% 56.6% 1.77
Rosario Central -1: X 23.1% 23.6% 4.24
Rosario Central -1: 2 20.8% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (0:1) 72.0% 71.0% 58.3% 1.22× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 17.4% 17.8% 24.3% 0.73× 5.63
Banfield (0:1) 10.6% 13.8% 17.5% 0.79× 7.24
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (0:2) 89.4% 87.0% 82.5% 1.05× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 7.5% 7.7% 12.6% 0.61× 12.95
Banfield (0:2) 3.0% 3.8% 5.0% 0.75× 26.58
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (0:3) 97.0% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.3% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 42.16
Banfield (0:3) 0.7% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.24
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (0:4) 99.3% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.62
Banfield (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.08× 83.67
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (1:0) 56.1% 58.0% 72.2% 0.80× 1.72
Draw (1:0) 23.1% 21.8% 18.7% 1.17× 4.59
Rosario Central (1:0) 20.8% 21.8% 9.2% 2.37× 4.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (2:0) 79.2% 80.4% 90.8% 0.89× 1.24
Draw (2:0) 13.2% 10.4% 6.3% 1.65× 9.63
Rosario Central (2:0) 7.6% 6.5% 3.0% 2.17× 15.48
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.2% 48.1% 2.08
Halves equal 27.6% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield to concede 74.1% 73.1% 57.6% 1.27× 1.37
Banfield clean sheet 25.9% 26.9% 42.4% 0.63× 3.72
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield clean sheet in 1st half 58.2% 62.4% 1.60
Banfield to concede in 1st half 41.8% 37.6% 2.66
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield under 6.5 corners 82.2% 80.9% 1.24
Banfield over 2.5 corners 75.7% 76.5% 1.31
Banfield under 5.5 corners 71.6% 71.9% 1.39
Banfield over 3.5 corners 59.0% 57.5% 1.74
Banfield under 4.5 corners 57.6% 57.5% 1.74
Banfield over 4.5 corners 42.5% 42.5% 2.35
Banfield under 3.5 corners 41.0% 42.5% 2.35
Banfield over 5.5 corners 28.4% 28.1% 3.56
Banfield under 2.5 corners 24.3% 23.5% 4.26
Banfield over 6.5 corners 17.8% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield under 3.5 goals 98.0% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Banfield under 2.5 goals 91.5% 92.2% 90.0% 1.02× 1.08
Banfield under 1.5 goals 72.7% 74.2% 68.3% 1.09× 1.35
Banfield over 0.5 goals 64.1% 63.5% 68.1% 0.93× 1.58
Banfield under 0.5 goals 35.9% 36.5% 31.9% 1.14× 2.74
Banfield over 1.5 goals 27.3% 25.8% 31.7% 0.82× 3.87
Banfield over 2.5 goals 8.5% 7.8% 10.0% 0.78× 12.90
Banfield over 3.5 goals 2.0% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.52
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield under 1.5 in 1st half 92.7% 95.4% 1.05
Banfield under 0.5 in 1st half 64.4% 64.8% 1.54
Banfield over 0.5 in 1st half 35.6% 35.2% 2.84
Banfield over 1.5 in 1st half 7.3% 4.6% 21.79
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central (home no bet) 61.0% 60.1% 47.5% 1.26× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 39.0% 39.9% 52.5% 0.76× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield even goals 56.5% 55.4% 55.7% 0.99× 1.80
Banfield odd goals 43.6% 44.6% 44.3% 1.01× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.6% 38.6% 2.59
HT 0-1 20.2% 24.1% 4.16
HT 1-0 16.4% 18.7% 5.34
HT 1-1 9.0% 7.1% 14.02
HT 0-2 5.5% 7.1% 14.07
HT 2-0 3.6% 2.3% 43.34
Any other HT score 2.8% 2.3% 43.41
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.3% 43.43
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.3% 43.47
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 43.57
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central at HT / Rosario Central at FT 23.9% 21.9% 4.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.4% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Rosario Central at FT 17.5% 16.8% 5.96
Banfield at HT / Banfield at FT 15.4% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Banfield at FT 11.1% 12.7% 7.90
Banfield at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% 16.73
Rosario Central at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.5% 28.79
Banfield at HT / Rosario Central at FT 2.5% 3.5% 28.87
Rosario Central at HT / Banfield at FT 1.4% 3.5% 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central to score last 51.4% 51.9% 1.93
Banfield to score last 38.9% 38.6% 2.59
No goal scored 9.7% 7.6% 13.17
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.3% 92.5% 1.08
Rosario Central to lead by 1 at any time 58.0% 55.1% 1.81
Banfield to lead by 1 at any time 43.9% 39.3% 2.54
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 40.8% 39.2% 2.55
Rosario Central to lead by 2 at any time 26.0% 25.4% 3.94
Banfield to lead by 2 at any time 14.9% 10.5% 9.50
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 13.2% 10.5% 9.53
Rosario Central to lead by 3 at any time 9.2% 6.7% 14.98
Banfield to lead by 3 at any time 4.0% 1.7% 60.39
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield most corners 45.0% 43.5% 2.30
Rosario Central most corners 42.9% 43.5% 2.30
Corners level 12.1% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.4% 84.3% 1.04× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.0% 83.5% 80.0% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 68.7% 69.0% 71.7% 0.96× 1.45
2-6 goals 67.9% 69.0% 60.6% 1.14× 1.45
2-5 goals 65.6% 68.9% 60.0% 1.15× 1.45
2-4 goals 59.7% 59.2% 55.7% 1.06× 1.69
1-2 goals 47.9% 48.7% 51.5% 0.95× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.4% 48.7% 47.4% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 41.3% 43.6% 33.5% 1.30× 2.30
3-5 goals 39.0% 39.2% 32.9% 1.19× 2.55
3-4 goals 33.1% 35.4% 28.7% 1.23× 2.83
4-6 goals 20.5% 24.5% 13.3% 1.84× 4.09
4-5 goals 18.2% 18.6% 12.7% 1.46× 5.37
5-6 goals 8.2% 8.7% 4.9% 1.77× 11.44
7+ goals 1.1% 2.5% 0.5% 5.55× 39.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rosario Central never behind 46.4% 56.5% 1.77
Banfield never behind 32.3% 35.6% 2.81
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.8% 50.8% 49.1% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.2% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.2% 57.5% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.8% 42.5% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.3% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.7% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.6% 95.5% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 90.7% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 90.3% 92.3% 85.2% 1.08× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 78.4% 77.4% 86.4% 0.90× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 69.0% 66.2% 60.9% 1.09× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 57.6% 58.8% 66.2% 0.89× 1.70
Over 2.5 goals 42.4% 41.2% 33.8% 1.22× 2.43
Under 1.5 goals 31.0% 33.8% 39.1% 0.86× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 21.6% 22.6% 13.6% 1.66× 4.42
Under 0.5 goals 9.7% 7.7% 14.8% 0.52× 12.91
Over 4.5 goals 9.3% 7.7% 5.3% 1.47× 12.91
Over 5.5 goals 3.4% 4.5% 1.0% 4.36× 22.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.9% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.4% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 89.4% 86.8% 94.2% 0.92× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 72.7% 72.6% 82.9% 0.88× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 57.8% 55.4% 46.4% 1.20× 1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 42.2% 44.6% 53.6% 0.83× 2.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 27.3% 27.4% 17.1% 1.60× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 10.6% 13.2% 5.8% 2.30× 7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.6% 2.8% 1.1% 2.57× 36.11
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.1% 2.8% 0.5% 5.99× 36.19
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.3% 92.7% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 74.2% 71.3% 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 62.4% 63.6% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.6% 36.4% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 25.8% 28.7% 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.7% 7.3% 13.68
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 83.5% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.1% 79.7% 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 59.2% 54.9% 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 40.8% 45.1% 2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.9% 20.3% 4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 16.5% 17.1% 5.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield not to score in both halves 84.3% 84.4% 1.19
Rosario Central not to score in both halves 76.8% 78.2% 1.28
Rosario Central to score in both halves 23.2% 21.8% 4.59
Banfield to score in both halves 15.7% 15.6% 6.40
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.9% 50.5% 40.5% 1.25× 1.98
Only Rosario Central scores 26.2% 26.1% 17.2% 1.52× 3.83
Only Banfield scores 16.2% 16.1% 27.8% 0.58× 6.22
Neither team scores 9.7% 7.2% 14.8% 0.49× 13.89
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.6% 25.0% 27.2% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 21.3% 22.6% 24.4% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 20.8% 22.6% 20.3% 1.11× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 12.3% 12.1% 8.5% 1.42× 8.27
Exactly 0 goals 9.7% 7.6% 14.8% 0.52× 13.08
Exactly 5 goals 5.9% 7.6% 4.4% 1.75× 13.09
6 or more goals 3.4% 4.4% 1.0% 4.27× 22.67
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 40.8% 44.1% 2.27
1 goal in 2nd half 34.3% 33.5% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 24.9% 23.2% 4.31
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield not to win both halves 94.4% 94.0% 1.06
Rosario Central not to win both halves 88.7% 87.9% 1.14
Rosario Central to win both halves 11.3% 12.1% 8.29
Banfield to win both halves 5.6% 6.0% 16.66
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield to win neither half 58.5% 59.5% 1.68
Rosario Central to win either half 56.2% 59.4% 1.68
Rosario Central to win neither half 43.8% 40.6% 2.47
Banfield to win either half 41.5% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield not to win to nil 83.8% 83.0% 72.2% 1.15× 1.20
Rosario Central not to win to nil 73.8% 75.3% 82.8% 0.91× 1.33
Rosario Central to win to nil 26.2% 24.7% 17.2% 1.44× 4.05
Banfield to win to nil 16.2% 17.0% 27.8% 0.61× 5.89
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.1% 27.9% 30.6% 0.91× 3.59
Rosario Central by 1 23.1% 24.2% 18.7% 1.29× 4.14
Banfield by 1 17.4% 16.9% 24.3% 0.70× 5.91
Rosario Central by 2 13.2% 11.8% 6.3% 1.87× 8.47
Banfield by 2 7.5% 7.3% 12.6% 0.58× 13.78
Rosario Central by 3+ 7.6% 7.3% 3.0% 2.43× 13.78
Banfield by 3+ 3.0% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.99
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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