Barcelona v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 13
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 13
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.49
Goals − xG
+1.66 – -1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
65.3%
Draw
19.9%
Athletic Club win
14.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.07–0.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.22–1.03 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 2.34 xGAthletic Club 1.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Athletic Club attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 7' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pau Cubarsí |
| 7' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fermín López |
| 8' |
 Athletic Club |
Unai Gómez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 11' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 13' |
Athletic Club |
Aymeric Laporte | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 13' |
Athletic Club |
Unai Gómez | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 19' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 35' |
Athletic Club |
Unai Gómez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Williams |
| 38' |
Athletic Club |
Unai Gómez | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 40' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yuri |
| 41' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Unai Gómez |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lamine Yamal |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 62' |
Athletic Club |
Dani Vivian | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Rego |
| 62' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 64' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Casadó |
| 70' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 74' |
Athletic Club |
Yuri | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adama Boiro |
| 79' |
Athletic Club |
Dani Vivian | 0.33 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Roberto Navarro |
| 81' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 83' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Roberto Navarro |
| 83' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Casadó |
| 87' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 89' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lamine Yamal |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Vivian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aymeric Laporte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Andoni Gorosabel DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Alex Berenguer AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Unai Gómez FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| Nico Williams AML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Oihan Sancet AMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Alejandro Rego Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Gorka Guruzeta Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Roberto Navarro Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.05 |
| Adama Boiro Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Mikel Vesga Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrán Torres FWL | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.72 | 0.16 | 0.88 |
| Lamine Yamal FWR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.77 | 1.19 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Dani Olmo MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Eric Garcia MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Fermín López MC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.06 | 1.12 |
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 67 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Álex Balde DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ronald Araújo Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| Dro Fernández Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marc Bernal Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Raphinha Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.41 |