Barcelona v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
6 – 8
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.95 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.43 – +0.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
70.7%
Draw
16.2%
Celta Vigo win
13.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona have scored 23 from 21.3 expected and conceded 8 from 9.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWWLWLWWW last 10
scored 23
from 21.3 xG
conceded 8
from 9.8 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWLDWDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 10.1 xG
conceded 11
from 18.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.57–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.40–0.90 | 2-0 11% | 64% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 2.57 xGCelta Vigo 2.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fermín López |
| 8' |
Barcelona |
Iñigo Martínez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 11' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Iñigo Martínez |
| 14' |
 Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pablo Durán |
| 22' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Durán |
| 26' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 28' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 38' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fran Beltrán |
| 41' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 42' |
Celta Vigo |
Iker Losada | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 51' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yoel Lago |
| 56' |
Barcelona |
Gerard Martín | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 58' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ilaix Moriba |
| 58' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sergio Carreira |
| 63' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Raphinha |
| 63' |
Celta Vigo |
Alfon | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Martín |
| 67' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Goal | Lamine Yamal |
| 68' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedri |
| 72' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iñigo Martínez |
| 83' |
Barcelona |
Gavi | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 89' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 97' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.78 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Javier Rodríguez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fran Beltrán DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Sergio Carreira DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Vicente Guaita GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Pablo Durán MR | 75 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.54 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 74 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 1.34 |
| Williot Swedberg ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Losada MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Óscar Mingueza Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Alfon Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fernando López Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Sotelo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphinha FWR | 90 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1.53 | 0.50 | 1.49 |
| Iñigo Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.60 |
| Frenkie de Jong MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.30 |
| Pedri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1.09 |
| Wojciech Szczesny GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.29 |
| Gerard Martín DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Ferrán Torres FWL | 60 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Fermín López MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Dani Olmo Sub | 30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Lamine Yamal Sub | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.83 |
| Gavi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Garcia Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pau Victor Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |