Bayer Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 12 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 13
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.03 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+0.69 – +0.21
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
39.9%
Draw
26.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
33.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.60–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.89–1.38 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 2.31 xGEintracht Frankfurt 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 9' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malik Tillman |
| 18' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 22' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 23' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Lucas Vázquez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 30' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Lucas Vázquez | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 35' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Loic Bade | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 36' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 37' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Koch |
| 43' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 48' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 48' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 51' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Vázquez |
| 56' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aleix García |
| 60' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nnamdi Collins | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Robin Koch |
| 63' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Koch |
| 66' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 76' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 80' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ezequiél Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 81' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 84' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Axel Tape | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mark Flekken |
| 85' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Loic Bade | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aleix García |
| 88' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 89' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Axel Tape | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 97' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Vázquez DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.98 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Loic Bade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Nathan Tella AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.20 | 0.73 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.04 | 0.64 |
| Aleix García Sub | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Malik Tillman AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Robert Andrich MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Ezequiél Fernández Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Axel Tape Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Christian Kofane Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Chaïbi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Nnamdi Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Ritsu Doan AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| Arthur Theate DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Can Uzun AMC | 88 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jean Négoce AML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| Nathaniel Brown Sub | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Oscar Højlund DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Michy Batshuayi Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DR | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |