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Bayer Leverkusen v Holstein Kiel — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 October 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

2–2
2.58 – 1.98 xG
Shots
23 – 8
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
15 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
1.42 – 1.47
Goals − xG
-0.60 – +0.02
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.52.22.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Victor Boniface 3' — goalJonas Hofmann 7' — goalMax Geschwill 49' — goalJann-Fiete Arp 68' — goal
Bayer Leverkusen 2.60 xGHolstein Kiel 1.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Victor Boniface 3' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Jonas Hofmann 5' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Victor Boniface 5' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Florian Wirtz 6' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Florian Wirtz 7' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jonas Hofmann 7' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Florian Wirtz 8' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Jonas Hofmann 8' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Tah 9' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jonas Hofmann 16' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Álex Grimaldo 19' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Robert Andrich 20' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Lewis Holtby 21' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Edmond Tapsoba 22' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Florian Wirtz 46' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Shuto Machino 47' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Finn Porath 48' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Tah 49' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Álex Grimaldo 49' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Max Geschwill 49' — Goal (0.58 xG, From Corner)Victor Boniface 57' — Missed Shot (0.45 xG, Set Piece)Granit Xhaka 60' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Florian Wirtz 63' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Benedikt Pichler 66' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jann-Fiete Arp 68' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Benedikt Pichler 72' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Max Geschwill 73' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Piero Hincapié 77' — Missed Shot (0.55 xG, Set Piece)Martin Terrier 79' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Álex Grimaldo 84' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Álex Grimaldo 89' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right Holstein Kiel attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Bayer Leverkusen Victor Boniface 0.28 Open Play Left Foot Goal Exequiel Palacios
5' Bayer Leverkusen Jonas Hofmann 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
5' Bayer Leverkusen Victor Boniface 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jeremie Frimpong
6' Bayer Leverkusen Florian Wirtz 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Exequiel Palacios
7' Bayer Leverkusen Florian Wirtz 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Edmond Tapsoba
7' Bayer Leverkusen Jonas Hofmann 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Goal Exequiel Palacios
8' Bayer Leverkusen Florian Wirtz 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jonas Hofmann
8' Bayer Leverkusen Jonas Hofmann 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jeremie Frimpong
9' Bayer Leverkusen Jonathan Tah 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
16' Bayer Leverkusen Jonas Hofmann 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Granit Xhaka
19' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
20' Bayer Leverkusen Robert Andrich 0.11 From Corner Missed Shot Álex Grimaldo
21' Holstein Kiel Lewis Holtby 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Magnus Knudsen
22' Bayer Leverkusen Edmond Tapsoba 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
46' Bayer Leverkusen Florian Wirtz 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Exequiel Palacios
47' Holstein Kiel Shuto Machino 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lewis Holtby
48' Holstein Kiel Finn Porath 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Steven Skrzybski
49' Bayer Leverkusen Jonathan Tah 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Florian Wirtz
49' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Victor Boniface
49' Holstein Kiel Max Geschwill 0.58 From Corner Goal Lewis Holtby
57' Bayer Leverkusen Victor Boniface 0.45 Set Piece Missed Shot Álex Grimaldo
60' Bayer Leverkusen Granit Xhaka 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Exequiel Palacios
63' Bayer Leverkusen Florian Wirtz 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Exequiel Palacios
66' Holstein Kiel Benedikt Pichler 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Magnus Knudsen
68' Holstein Kiel Jann-Fiete Arp 0.76 Right Foot Goal
72' Holstein Kiel Benedikt Pichler 0.31 Open Play Saved Shot Timo Becker
73' Holstein Kiel Max Geschwill 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Jann-Fiete Arp
77' Bayer Leverkusen Piero Hincapié 0.55 Set Piece Missed Shot Aleix García
79' Bayer Leverkusen Martin Terrier 0.11 From Corner Missed Shot Piero Hincapié
84' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Aleix García
89' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Edmond Tapsoba

Players

Bayer Leverkusen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Florian Wirtz AMC 90 0 0 5 1 0.26 0.04 0.91
Álex Grimaldo DML 90 0 0 4 2 0.20 0.56 0.30
Jonathan Tah DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.59
Granit Xhaka MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.11
Edmond Tapsoba DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.01 0.09 0.16
Lukas Hradecky GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeremie Frimpong DMR 82 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.24
Victor Boniface FW 75 1 0 3 1 0.80 0.11 0.46
Robert Andrich DC 75 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.26
Exequiel Palacios MC 75 0 2 0 6 0.00 0.68 0.74
Jonas Hofmann AMC 65 1 0 4 1 0.45 0.13 0.59
Martin Terrier Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.00
Piero Hincapié Sub 15 0 0 1 1 0.55 0.11 0.00
Aleix García Sub 15 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.58 0.00
Patrik Schick Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Amine Adli Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Holstein Kiel

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Max Geschwill DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.67 0.00 0.00
Lewis Holtby MC 90 0 1 1 2 0.04 0.64 0.10
Finn Porath DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Timo Becker DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.31 0.35
Patrick Erras DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marko Ivezic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Magnus Knudsen MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.15 0.21
Timon Weiner GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Armin Gigovic MC 76 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shuto Machino FW 51 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Steven Skrzybski FW 51 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.00
Jann-Fiete Arp Sub 39 1 0 1 1 0.76 0.09 0.00
Benedikt Pichler Sub 39 0 0 2 0 0.41 0.00 0.41
Marvin Schulz Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolai Remberg Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Komenda Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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