Bayer Leverkusen v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.45
Goals − xG
-1.02 – +0.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
61.5%
Draw
22.5%
Mainz 05 win
16.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.04–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.32–1.24 | 2-1 10% | 69% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 2.02 xGMainz 05 0.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 3' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonas Hofmann | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 4' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 7' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 17' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 17' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 38' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Posch | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 62' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Terrier |
| 66' |
Mainz 05 |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Paul Nebel |
| 72' |
Mainz 05 |
Phillip Tietz | 0.40 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 78' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Terrier |
| 86' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Axel Tape | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 86' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 87' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christian Kofane |
| 90' |
Mainz 05 |
Danny da Costa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Silas Wamangituka |
| 94' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Martin Terrier | 0.70 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 94' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarell Quansah |
| 95' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarell Quansah |
| 96' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.23 | 0.88 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.71 | 1.76 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| Janis Blaswich GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Ezequiél Fernández MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jonas Hofmann AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ernest Poku AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Arthur DMR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Axel Tape Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Terrier Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| Ibrahim Maza Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Christian Kofane Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Aleix García Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Paul Nebel MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| Stefan Posch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jae-Sung Lee MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.12 |
| Kacper Potulski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Batz GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Silvan Widmer DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sheraldo Becker FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| Silas Wamangituka Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Danny da Costa Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |