Bayer Leverkusen v Paderborn — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 November 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
62.6%
Draw
20.3%
Paderborn win
17.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.10–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 2.02–0.74 | 2-0 13% | 52% | 46% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.