Bayer Leverkusen v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 11
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.72 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+1.74 – -0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
65.3%
Draw
22.6%
St. Pauli win
12.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.02–0.77 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.10–0.79 | 2-0 12% | 55% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 2.26 xGSt. Pauli 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tomoya Ando |
| 12' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Goal | Ernest Poku |
| 13' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 13' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.56 | Open Play | — | Goal | Lucas Vázquez |
| 14' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 30' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Vázquez |
| 31' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Irvine |
| 34' |
St. Pauli |
Karol Mets | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manolis Saliakas |
| 35' |
St. Pauli |
Mathias Rasmussen | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mathias Rasmussen |
| 51' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Goal | Aleix García |
| 60' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aleix García |
| 77' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Jonas Hofmann |
| 81' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur |
| 83' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleix García |
| 85' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lars Ritzka |
| 87' |
St. Pauli |
Taichi Hara | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 92' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malik Tillman |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ernest Poku AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.44 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Janis Blaswich GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 60 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Lucas Vázquez DMR | 60 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Ibrahim Maza AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| Malik Tillman Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.42 |
| Christian Kofane Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Arthur Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jonas Hofmann Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Martin Terrier Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danel Sinani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| Mathias Rasmussen AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Adam Dzwigala DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomoya Ando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Manolis Saliakas DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| James Sands MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Taichi Hara Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Joel Chima Fujita Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lars Ritzka Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |