Bayern Munich v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 16
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.73 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-1.31 – +0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
81.5%
Draw
13.0%
Augsburg win
5.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWWDWWW last 10
scored 35
from 32.0 xG
conceded 13
from 17.6 xG
Augsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWDWWLW last 10
scored 17
from 23.1 xG
conceded 18
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.94–0.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.24–0.64 | 3-0 12% | 74% | 46% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 2.31 xGAugsburg 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 6' |
 Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 22' |
Bayern Munich |
Hiroki Ito | 0.53 | From Corner | — | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 24' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Tah |
| 36' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 44' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 44' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 48' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 56' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 59' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 72' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 74' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Augsburg |
Arthur Chaves | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | Mert Kömür |
| 78' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 83' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Chaves |
| 84' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 86' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Essende |
| 90' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Finn Dahmen |
| 90' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 91' |
Bayern Munich |
Felipe Chávez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 91' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 93' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 94' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.10 | 0.68 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.06 | 0.77 |
| Robin Fellhauer DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.46 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Anton Kade FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Yannik Keitel Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mert Kömür Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.44 |
| Marius Wolf Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 1.03 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1.16 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Hiroki Ito DL | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Lennart Karl AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Alphonso Davies DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Jamal Musiala Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Joshua Kimmich Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nicolas Jackson Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Felipe Chávez Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |