Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
28 – 11
On target
11 – 3
Shots in box
19 – 8
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.36 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.95 – +0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
67.1%
Draw
18.0%
Borussia Dortmund win
14.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.57–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 2.95 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 6' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 8' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 10' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 12' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kim Min-Jae |
| 18' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 19' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Bayern Munich |
Josip Stanisic | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 36' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 37' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Niklas Süle | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 47' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Goal | Julian Ryerson |
| 57' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 57' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 59' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 64' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 64' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Thomas Müller |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Josip Stanisic |
| 72' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 74' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.58 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 88' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 91' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 92' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Raphael Guerreiro |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pascal Groß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Daniel Svensson ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Emre Can DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Julian Ryerson MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| Maximilian Beier FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| Niklas Süle DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Julian Brandt MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.61 |
| Salih Özcan DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Felix Nmecha Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramy Bensebaini Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 1.51 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 1.40 |
| Josip Stanisic DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 1.02 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.33 | 1.16 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Thomas Müller AMC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.84 | 1.58 |
| Leroy Sané AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Raphael Guerreiro Sub | 34 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 0.67 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Serge Gnabry Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.66 |
| Kingsley Coman Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |