Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 9
On target
11 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.70 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+0.16 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
80.6%
Draw
12.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
7.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 3.28–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.32–1.03 | 3-1 8% | 81% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 2.84 xGEintracht Frankfurt 2.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 15' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 18' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 19' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.61 | From Corner | — | Goal | Josip Stanisic |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Josip Stanisic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 26' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 29' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 37' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 38' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 39' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 46' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mahmoud Dahoud | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 54' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 58' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 58' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 61' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Mario Götze |
| 61' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 67' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 71' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 76' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 80' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 80' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 85' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 94' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mario Götze | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Jean Négoce AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Kauã Santos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Nnamdi Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.84 |
| Oscar Højlund MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Ellyes Skhiri DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab DMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ritsu Doan AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Jonathan Burkardt Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.42 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Mario Götze Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| Farès Chaïbi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Elias Baum Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0.43 | 0.91 | 1.64 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.14 | 0.53 | 1.46 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 1.34 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.77 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.72 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jamal Musiala AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.05 | 0.78 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Alphonso Davies DL | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Hiroki Ito Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Serge Gnabry Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Jonathan Tah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Goretzka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |