Bayern Munich v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 9
On target
12 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+1.96 – -0.56
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
85.4%
Draw
10.7%
Hamburger SV win
3.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Hamburger SV have scored 11 from 11.2 expected and conceded 24 from 25.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.2 xG
conceded 24
from 25.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.78–0.45 | 2-0 15% | 63% | 34% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 3.04 xGHamburger SV 0.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Hamburger SV attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Konrad Laimer |
| 8' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harry Kane |
| 12' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 17' |
 Hamburger SV |
William Mikelbrencis | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolai Remberg |
| 20' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 26' |
Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 27' |
Hamburger SV |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 30' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 30' |
Hamburger SV |
Warmed Omari | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 32' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 35' |
Hamburger SV |
Nicolás Capaldo | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Fábio Vieira |
| 37' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 38' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 40' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 46' |
Hamburger SV |
William Mikelbrencis | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Warmed Omari |
| 56' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 61' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 65' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Philippe |
| 75' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rayan Philippe |
| 84' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 89' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 91' |
Hamburger SV |
Robert Glatzel | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Miro Muheim |
Players
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 1.82 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 1.11 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.65 | 1.53 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Josip Stanisic DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 82 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.04 | 1.06 |
| Harry Kane FW | 70 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.10 | 0.75 | 1.09 |
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 52 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Nicolas Jackson Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Lennart Karl Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Raphael Guerreiro Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sacha Boey Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Mikelbrencis DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Miro Muheim DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Fábio Vieira MR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nicolás Capaldo MC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit ML | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aboubaka Soumahoro DC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Meffert Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rayan Philippe Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Daniel Elfadli Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robert Glatzel Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |