Bayern Munich v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 10
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+0.46 – +0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
84.5%
Draw
10.8%
St. Pauli win
4.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWWDWWW last 10
scored 35
from 32.0 xG
conceded 13
from 17.6 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 3.05–0.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.94–0.61 | 2-0 12% | 69% | 43% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 2.54 xGSt. Pauli 0.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
 St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pereira Lage |
| 17' |
Bayern Munich |
Kim Min-Jae | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 22' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Bayern Munich |
Jonathan Tah | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 34' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 36' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 39' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Sands |
| 46' |
St. Pauli |
Karol Mets | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Smith |
| 46' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Irvine |
| 48' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 50' |
St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Smith |
| 56' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 60' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 63' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 80' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 84' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 89' |
St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 92' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 95' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Chima Fujita MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| James Sands MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pereira Lage ML | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| Danel Sinani Sub | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Lars Ritzka DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Oppie Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andréas Hountondji FW | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.88 | 1.49 |
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Tom Bischof DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 1.21 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1.33 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Raphael Guerreiro AMC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lennart Karl AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.59 |
| Michael Olise Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.60 |
| Serge Gnabry Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Josip Stanisic Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Leon Goretzka Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Nicolas Jackson Sub | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |