Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
28 – 11
On target
8 – 7
Shots in box
22 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.33 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.39 – +0.73
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
74.8%
Draw
13.8%
VfB Stuttgart win
11.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 3.03–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.14–1.34 | 3-1 8% | 82% | 71% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 5.39 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphael Guerreiro |
| 9' |
Bayern Munich |
Kim Min-Jae | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 11' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphael Guerreiro |
| 20' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 22' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphael Guerreiro |
| 27' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 29' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 30' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.90 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jamal Musiala |
| 32' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 34' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Bayern Munich |
Alphonso Davies | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 38' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ramon Hendriks |
| 43' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 51' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.60 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.46 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hiroki Ito |
| 55' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 58' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 64' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 69' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raphael Guerreiro |
| 69' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chema Andres |
| 71' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Josip Stanisic | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 87' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Atakan Karazor |
| 87' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ramon Hendriks | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 89' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 91' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 92' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal El Khannouss AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.96 |
| Ramon Hendriks DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| Tiago Tomás FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Chris Führich AMC | 68 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.48 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Luca Jaquez Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ermedin Demirovic Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Badredine Bouanani Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.35 | 1.29 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 2.11 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.33 | 1.05 |
| Hiroki Ito DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1.69 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.13 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Raphael Guerreiro AMR | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1.02 | 0.32 | 1.90 |
| Alphonso Davies DL | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1.64 |
| Jamal Musiala AMC | 49 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.95 | 1.67 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 49 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0.35 | 1.12 | 2.33 |
| Harry Kane Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Michael Olise Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.89 | 1.36 |
| Konrad Laimer Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bara Sapoko Ndiaye Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deniz Ofli Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |