Birmingham City v Middlesbrough — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Birmingham City

10:00

Middlesbrough

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 294h before kick-off

Birmingham City win

30.1%

model 31.7%

Draw

29.4%

model 29.8%

Middlesbrough win

40.5%

model 38.4%

302941

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.2%
0-0 9.6%
0-1 9.2%
1-2 8.5%
1-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	46.1%	Under 2.5	53.9%
BTTS yes	52.6%	BTTS no	47.4%
Birmingham City 1+	69.5%	Birmingham City 2+	33.3%
Middlesbrough 1+	73.5%	Middlesbrough 2+	38.3%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.33. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

47/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Middlesbrough (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 57%

69.1% fair odds 1.45

moderate signal · 931 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Middlesbrough.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Middlesbrough have an estimated 40.5% win probability, against 30.1% for Birmingham City and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Birmingham City and 1.33 for Middlesbrough.

Why Birmingham City

Nothing in the data singles out Birmingham City.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.19 to 1.33. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Middlesbrough can win

Nothing in the data singles out Middlesbrough.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Birmingham City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Middlesbrough, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Birmingham City: 49% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Middlesbrough: 64% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Middlesbrough are the model's most likely outcome at 40.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.2%. Confidence 47/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	323038	1.19–1.33	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	303040	1.12–1.34	1-1 14%	45%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to win	40.2%	43.0%	29.0%	1.48×	2.33
Draw	30.0%	30.3%	27.6%	1.10×	3.30
Birmingham City to win	29.8%	27.9%	43.5%	0.64×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & not both score	22.5%	21.9%	15.3%	1.43×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	20.0%	21.9%	20.4%	1.07×	4.57
Middlesbrough & both teams score	17.7%	17.9%	13.8%	1.30×	5.58
Birmingham City & not both score	16.1%	17.9%	23.4%	0.77×	5.58
Birmingham City & both teams score	13.6%	13.3%	20.2%	0.66×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.0%	13.3%	7.3%	1.81×	7.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough & over 1.5	30.3%	30.9%	21.4%	1.44×	3.24
Middlesbrough & under 3.5	29.6%	26.0%	22.3%	1.17×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	24.3%	21.7%	21.6%	1.00×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	24.3%	21.7%	21.6%	1.00×	4.62
Birmingham City & under 3.5	22.6%	21.7%	32.5%	0.67×	4.62
Middlesbrough & over 2.5	22.7%	21.7%	16.2%	1.34×	4.62
Birmingham City & over 1.5	21.7%	21.7%	32.5%	0.67×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	20.0%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.62
Middlesbrough & under 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	13.0%	1.39×	5.56
Birmingham City & over 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	26.4%	0.68×	5.56
Birmingham City & under 2.5	13.4%	12.9%	17.2%	0.75×	7.77
Middlesbrough & over 3.5	10.6%	12.9%	6.8%	1.90×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	10.0%	12.9%	7.3%	1.76×	7.77
Middlesbrough & under 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.69
Birmingham City & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.70
Birmingham City & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (1UP)	55.8%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Birmingham City (1UP)	46.6%	43.2%	—	—	2.32

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (2UP)	40.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Birmingham City (2UP)	29.8%	25.0%	—	—	4.00

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.4%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Middlesbrough to win 2nd half	35.7%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Birmingham City to win 2nd half	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (+2.5)	96.2%	96.3%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Middlesbrough (+1.5)	87.5%	88.5%	80.7%	1.10×	1.13
Middlesbrough (+0.5)	70.2%	73.7%	56.5%	1.30×	1.36
Birmingham City (+0.5)	59.8%	57.0%	71.0%	0.80×	1.75
Middlesbrough (-0.5)	40.2%	43.0%	29.0%	1.48×	2.33
Birmingham City (-0.5)	29.8%	26.3%	43.5%	0.61×	3.80
Birmingham City (-1.5)	12.5%	11.5%	19.3%	0.59×	8.70
Birmingham City (-2.5)	3.8%	3.7%	8.1%	0.46×	26.82

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to concede	67.5%	72.5%	77.5%	0.94×	1.38
Middlesbrough clean sheet	32.5%	27.5%	22.5%	1.22×	3.64

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough clean sheet in 1st half	61.7%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Middlesbrough to concede in 1st half	38.3%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough over 2.5 corners	82.3%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Middlesbrough over 3.5 corners	70.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Middlesbrough under 6.5 corners	65.4%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Middlesbrough over 4.5 corners	57.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Middlesbrough under 5.5 corners	54.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Middlesbrough over 5.5 corners	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Middlesbrough under 4.5 corners	42.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Middlesbrough over 6.5 corners	34.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Middlesbrough under 3.5 corners	29.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Middlesbrough under 2.5 corners	17.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 3.5 goals	95.3%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Middlesbrough under 2.5 goals	84.7%	81.4%	90.6%	0.90×	1.23
Middlesbrough over 0.5 goals	73.9%	72.0%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Middlesbrough under 1.5 goals	61.2%	62.9%	69.9%	0.90×	1.59
Middlesbrough over 1.5 goals	38.8%	37.1%	30.1%	1.23×	2.70
Middlesbrough under 0.5 goals	26.1%	28.0%	30.6%	0.92×	3.57
Middlesbrough over 2.5 goals	15.3%	18.6%	9.5%	1.97×	5.39
Middlesbrough over 3.5 goals	4.7%	2.5%	2.2%	1.10×	40.63

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough under 1.5 in 1st half	89.8%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Middlesbrough under 0.5 in 1st half	58.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Middlesbrough over 0.5 in 1st half	41.5%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Middlesbrough over 1.5 in 1st half	10.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.24

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	50.2%	51.2%	38.8%	1.32×	1.95
Birmingham City (away no bet)	49.8%	48.8%	61.2%	0.80×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough even goals	53.4%	52.8%	52.6%	1.00×	1.89
Middlesbrough odd goals	46.6%	47.2%	47.4%	1.00×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.5%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.17

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.8%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.2%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.4%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Middlesbrough to score 2+ in a row	31.5%	28.9%	—	—	3.45
Birmingham City to score 2+ in a row	23.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.2%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Middlesbrough to score 3+ in a row	10.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Birmingham City to score 3+ in a row	6.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.78

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City corners (+3.5)	80.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Birmingham City corners (+2.5)	74.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Middlesbrough corners (+3.5)	73.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Birmingham City corners (+1.5)	67.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Middlesbrough corners (+2.5)	66.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Middlesbrough corners (+1.5)	57.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Birmingham City corners (-1.5)	42.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Birmingham City corners (-2.5)	34.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Middlesbrough corners (-1.5)	32.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Birmingham City corners (-3.5)	26.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Middlesbrough corners (-2.5)	25.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Middlesbrough corners (-3.5)	19.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	48.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
0-8 corners	26.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
9-11 corners	24.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	80.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.3%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	58.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	57.1%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	51.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	48.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	42.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	41.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	34.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 8.5 corners	26.7%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	19.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.3%	11.5%	14.4%	0.79×	8.73
0-0	10.0%	11.5%	7.3%	1.57×	8.73
0-1	9.9%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
1-2	8.6%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.48
0-2	7.6%	7.4%	5.3%	1.39×	13.48
1-0	8.0%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.48
2-1	7.2%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.48
2-0	5.4%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.46
0-3	3.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.47
0-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.4%	3.98×	58.48
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.47
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.84×	58.48
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.48
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.49
3-0	2.0%	1.7%	4.0%	0.42×	58.48
3-1	2.7%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.47
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.48
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.49
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.49
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.49
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.49
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.21×	58.49
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	9.95×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	19.90×	58.49
Any other score	1.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough leading at HT (DNB)	53.3%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Birmingham City leading at HT (DNB)	46.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (X2)	70.2%	72.1%	56.5%	1.28×	1.39
Birmingham City or Middlesbrough (12)	70.0%	69.7%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Birmingham City or draw (1X)	59.8%	57.0%	71.0%	0.80×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw at HT	75.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Birmingham City or draw at HT	71.5%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Birmingham City or Middlesbrough at HT	53.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw (1UP)	70.2%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Birmingham City or draw (1UP)	59.8%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough or draw in 2nd half	74.1%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Birmingham City or draw in 2nd half	64.3%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Birmingham City or Middlesbrough in 2nd half	61.6%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.5%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Neither half drawn	34.5%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (DNB)	57.5%	58.3%	40.0%	1.45×	1.72
Birmingham City (DNB)	42.5%	41.7%	60.0%	0.70×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score first	49.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Birmingham City to score first	41.0%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	10.0%	9.5%	—	—	10.57

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.4%	51.4%	54.2%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.6%	48.6%	45.8%	1.06×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.9%	41.6%	37.3%	1.12×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	37.1%	38.5%	39.9%	0.97×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	14.3%	12.3%	14.4%	0.86×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	7.7%	8.4%	8.6%	0.97×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.0%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.0%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.3%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.7%	25.9%	—	—	3.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.3%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	22.5%	20.8%	—	—	4.81
Both score 1st half only	12.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.2%	5.0%	—	—	19.86

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.8%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.2%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A goal in each half	49.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.6%	47.4%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
0-1 goals	27.9%	26.5%	25.9%	1.02×	3.78
4-6 goals	22.2%	22.8%	22.4%	1.02×	4.39
7+ goals	1.3%	1.8%	1.4%	1.33×	54.67

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score exactly 1	35.1%	36.0%	39.4%	0.91×	2.78
Middlesbrough to score exactly 0	26.1%	27.4%	30.6%	0.90×	3.65
Middlesbrough to score exactly 2	23.5%	22.4%	20.7%	1.08×	4.46
Middlesbrough to score 3+	15.3%	19.6%	9.5%	2.07×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.6%	36.9%	0.96×	2.81
Birmingham City to score exactly 0	32.5%	32.6%	22.5%	1.45×	3.06
Birmingham City to score exactly 2	20.5%	23.2%	24.6%	0.95×	4.30
Birmingham City to score 3+	10.4%	14.3%	16.2%	0.89×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Middlesbrough leading at HT	28.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Birmingham City leading at HT	24.9%	20.3%	—	—	4.94

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough -1: 1	59.8%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Middlesbrough -1: X	20.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Middlesbrough -1: 2	19.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:1)	70.2%	71.0%	56.5%	1.26×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	17.3%	17.8%	24.2%	0.73×	5.63
Birmingham City (0:1)	12.5%	13.8%	19.3%	0.72×	7.23

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:2)	87.5%	86.9%	80.7%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.6%	7.7%	11.3%	0.68×	12.94
Birmingham City (0:2)	3.8%	3.8%	8.1%	0.47×	26.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:3)	96.2%	96.6%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.9%	2.4%	4.8%	0.49×	42.14
Birmingham City (0:3)	1.0%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	42.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (0:4)	99.0%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	2.4%	0.50×	83.59
Birmingham City (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.16×	83.66

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (1:0)	59.8%	58.2%	71.0%	0.82×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	20.9%	21.8%	17.3%	1.26×	4.60
Middlesbrough (1:0)	19.3%	17.0%	11.9%	1.44×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (2:0)	80.7%	84.5%	88.1%	0.96×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.3%	10.4%	8.7%	1.20×	9.63
Middlesbrough (2:0)	7.0%	6.5%	3.3%	1.98×	15.49

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	28.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	25.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to concede	73.9%	73.1%	69.4%	1.05×	1.37
Birmingham City clean sheet	26.1%	26.9%	30.6%	0.88×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City clean sheet in 1st half	58.5%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Birmingham City to concede in 1st half	41.5%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City over 2.5 corners	85.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Birmingham City over 3.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Birmingham City over 4.5 corners	64.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Birmingham City under 6.5 corners	58.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Birmingham City over 5.5 corners	52.3%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Birmingham City under 5.5 corners	47.7%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Birmingham City over 6.5 corners	41.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Birmingham City under 4.5 corners	36.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Birmingham City under 3.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Birmingham City under 2.5 corners	14.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 3.5 goals	97.2%	96.4%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Birmingham City under 2.5 goals	89.6%	87.3%	83.8%	1.04×	1.15
Birmingham City under 1.5 goals	69.0%	67.9%	59.4%	1.14×	1.47
Birmingham City over 0.5 goals	67.5%	67.9%	77.5%	0.88×	1.47
Birmingham City under 0.5 goals	32.5%	32.1%	22.5%	1.43×	3.11
Birmingham City over 1.5 goals	31.0%	32.1%	40.6%	0.79×	3.11
Birmingham City over 2.5 goals	10.4%	12.7%	16.2%	0.79×	7.86
Birmingham City over 3.5 goals	2.8%	3.6%	5.2%	0.71×	27.49

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 1.5 in 1st half	91.5%	95.3%	—	—	1.05
Birmingham City under 0.5 in 1st half	61.7%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Birmingham City over 0.5 in 1st half	38.3%	35.4%	—	—	2.83
Birmingham City over 1.5 in 1st half	8.5%	4.7%	—	—	21.32

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough (home no bet)	57.2%	56.7%	51.3%	1.11×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	42.8%	43.3%	48.7%	0.89×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City even goals	55.3%	55.4%	50.5%	1.10×	1.80
Birmingham City odd goals	44.7%	44.6%	49.5%	0.90×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
HT 0-1	19.1%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-0	17.2%	18.7%	—	—	5.34
HT 1-1	9.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 0-2	5.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-0	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.30
Any other HT score	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.39
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.44
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.57

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	21.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Birmingham City at HT / Birmingham City at FT	16.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	15.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Birmingham City at FT	11.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Birmingham City at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Middlesbrough at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Birmingham City at HT / Middlesbrough at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Middlesbrough at HT / Birmingham City at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough to score last	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Birmingham City to score last	41.0%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	10.0%	8.8%	—	—	11.31

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.0%	91.0%	—	—	1.10
Middlesbrough to lead by 1 at any time	55.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Birmingham City to lead by 1 at any time	46.6%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Middlesbrough to lead by 2 at any time	24.7%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Birmingham City to lead by 2 at any time	17.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Middlesbrough to lead by 3 at any time	8.6%	6.7%	—	—	15.00
Birmingham City to lead by 3 at any time	5.0%	6.6%	—	—	15.18

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City most corners	50.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Middlesbrough most corners	40.9%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	8.5%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.0%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.6%	78.6%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	70.7%	72.4%	72.8%	1.00×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.1%	69.0%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.5%	68.9%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.4%	64.8%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.6%	48.7%	50.4%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.3%	48.7%	44.4%	1.10×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.4%	43.6%	47.1%	0.93×	2.30
3-5 goals	40.8%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.30
3-4 goals	34.3%	35.4%	39.1%	0.90×	2.83
4-6 goals	22.2%	24.5%	22.4%	1.09×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.5%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.37
5-6 goals	9.1%	8.7%	8.1%	1.08×	11.44
7+ goals	1.3%	2.5%	1.4%	1.85×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Middlesbrough never behind	43.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Birmingham City never behind	34.2%	35.8%	—	—	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.6%	50.8%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.4%	49.2%	50.6%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.2%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.0%	95.5%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.0%	87.7%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	89.6%	87.7%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.5%	77.3%	76.3%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	72.1%	72.5%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.3%	58.8%	51.6%	1.14×	1.70
Over 2.5 goals	44.7%	41.2%	48.4%	0.85×	2.43
Under 1.5 goals	27.9%	27.5%	25.9%	1.06×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	23.5%	22.7%	23.7%	0.96×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	10.4%	12.3%	9.4%	1.32×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	10.0%	12.3%	7.3%	1.69×	8.10
Over 5.5 goals	4.0%	4.5%	4.0%	1.14×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.6%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.8%	97.2%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.0%	86.7%	89.1%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.1%	72.5%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	61.6%	62.1%	65.1%	0.95×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.4%	37.9%	34.9%	1.09×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.9%	27.5%	31.5%	0.87×	3.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.0%	13.3%	10.9%	1.21×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.3%	2.8%	4.2%	0.66×	36.10
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.4%	2.8%	1.4%	1.96×	36.18

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.6%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.7%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.3%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.4%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.2%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	57.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	42.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City not to score in both halves	81.9%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Middlesbrough not to score in both halves	77.0%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Middlesbrough to score in both halves	23.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Birmingham City to score in both halves	18.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.4%	53.9%	54.2%	0.99×	1.86
Only Middlesbrough scores	22.5%	22.3%	15.3%	1.46×	4.48
Only Birmingham City scores	16.1%	16.1%	23.4%	0.69×	6.22
Neither team scores	10.0%	10.9%	7.3%	1.50×	9.16

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.3%	25.0%	25.8%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.6%	24.7%	0.91×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	17.9%	17.4%	18.7%	0.93×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	13.1%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	10.0%	12.1%	7.3%	1.65×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	6.5%	7.6%	5.5%	1.39×	13.09
6 or more goals	4.0%	4.4%	4.0%	1.12×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	42.9%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
1 goal in 2nd half	33.0%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	24.1%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City not to win both halves	93.3%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Middlesbrough not to win both halves	89.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Middlesbrough to win both halves	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Birmingham City to win both halves	6.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.58

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to win neither half	55.8%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Middlesbrough to win either half	53.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Middlesbrough to win neither half	46.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Birmingham City to win either half	44.2%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City not to win to nil	83.9%	83.0%	76.6%	1.08×	1.20
Middlesbrough not to win to nil	77.5%	78.0%	84.7%	0.92×	1.28
Middlesbrough to win to nil	22.5%	22.0%	15.3%	1.44×	4.56
Birmingham City to win to nil	16.1%	17.0%	23.4%	0.73×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.0%	27.6%	27.6%	1.00×	3.63
Middlesbrough by 1	20.9%	24.1%	17.3%	1.40×	4.14
Birmingham City by 1	17.3%	16.9%	24.2%	0.70×	5.91
Middlesbrough by 2	12.3%	11.8%	8.7%	1.36×	8.48
Birmingham City by 2	8.6%	7.3%	11.3%	0.64×	13.78
Middlesbrough by 3+	7.0%	7.3%	3.3%	2.22×	13.78
Birmingham City by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	8.1%	0.34×	36.96