Bologna v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 2
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 1
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.34
Set-piece xG
0.97 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.26 – +0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
57.0%
Draw
26.6%
Cagliari win
16.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLLDWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.3 xG
conceded 12
from 10.3 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.86–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 2.26 xGCagliari 0.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Bologna |
Davide Calabria | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Fabbian |
| 15' |
Bologna |
Martin Erlic | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Charalampos Lykogiannis |
| 21' |
 Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tommaso Augello |
| 24' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 30' |
Bologna |
Benjamín Domínguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 39' |
Bologna |
Martin Erlic | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Charalampos Lykogiannis |
| 39' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 42' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tommaso Pobega |
| 42' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 50' |
Bologna |
Remo Freuler | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 55' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.80 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 63' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 74' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 89' |
Cagliari |
Nicolas Viola | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Castro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.99 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Davide Calabria DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 89 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.71 | 0.04 | 1.11 |
| Martin Erlic DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tommaso Pobega DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Benjamín Domínguez AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Giovanni Fabbian AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Sub | 42 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.80 | 0.88 |
| Jens Odgaard Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.91 |
| Lewis Ferguson Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Nicolò Casale Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sam Beukema Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.05 | 0.68 |
| Gabriele Zappa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Tommaso Augello ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Makoumbou MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadir Zortea MR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zito FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Obert DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattia Felici Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Razvan Marin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florinel Coman Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Viola Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |