Bologna v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 24 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.60 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-2.13 – +0.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
41.3%
Draw
27.4%
Lazio win
31.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLLDWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.3 xG
conceded 12
from 10.3 xG
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.28–1.04 | 1-1 13% | 41% | 47% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 2.13 xGLazio 0.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 12' |
Lazio |
Alfonso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Cancellieri |
| 13' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Rovella |
| 16' |
 Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 19' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alfonso |
| 35' |
Bologna |
Nadir Zortea | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 37' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Eivind Helland | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 50' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oussama El Azzouzi |
| 57' |
Lazio |
Romano Floriani | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 58' |
Lazio |
Davide Frattesi | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Boulaye Dia |
| 62' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 69' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 75' |
Bologna |
Eivind Helland | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Torbjørn Heggem |
| 75' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.49 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 80' |
Lazio |
Nicolo Rovella | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 88' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenneth Taylor |
| 91' |
Bologna |
Emil Holm | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Bologna |
Lewis Ferguson | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Ferguson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Eivind Helland DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Nadir Zortea DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bernardeschi Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.49 | 0.02 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Holm Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Amondarain Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Nicolo Rovella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Oliver Provstgaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Christos Mandas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| Alfonso DL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Romano Floriani Sub | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Gustav Isaksen Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nuno Tavares Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |