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Bologna v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 2 November 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–0
2.06 – 0.77 xG
Shots
20 – 6
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
13 – 1
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.06 – -0.77
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.72.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Riccardo Orsolini 84' — goal
Bologna 2.06 xGLecce 0.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dan Ndoye 0' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 0' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Santiago Pierotti 21' — Missed Shot (0.56 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo De Silvestri 27' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Jens Odgaard 36' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Remo Freuler 41' — Missed Shot (0.57 xG, Open Play)Remo Freuler 43' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 44' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 45' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Santiago Castro 45' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 45' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 46' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 48' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jhon Lucumí 52' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Juan Miranda 52' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Juan Miranda 65' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Thijs Dallinga 67' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Fabbian 69' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Juan Miranda 69' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Nikola Krstovic 72' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Nikola Krstovic 74' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 76' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Fabbian 79' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 84' — Goal (0.38 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Fabbian 86' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Kacper Urbanski 86' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)
Bologna attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Riccardo Orsolini
0' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.05 Open Play Saved Shot Lorenzo De Silvestri
21' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.56 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Dorgu
27' Bologna Lorenzo De Silvestri 0.10 Set Piece Missed Shot Juan Miranda
36' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Nikola Moro
41' Bologna Remo Freuler 0.57 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
43' Bologna Remo Freuler 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Santiago Castro
44' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Remo Freuler
45' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.05 From Corner Saved Shot Juan Miranda
45' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.09 Open Play Missed Shot Juan Miranda
45' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nikola Krstovic
46' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Santiago Pierotti
48' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Santiago Pierotti
52' Bologna Jhon Lucumí 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot
52' Bologna Juan Miranda 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
65' Bologna Juan Miranda 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jhon Lucumí
67' Bologna Thijs Dallinga 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Juan Miranda
69' Bologna Giovanni Fabbian 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Kacper Urbanski
69' Bologna Juan Miranda 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Riccardo Orsolini
72' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
74' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Santiago Pierotti
76' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Juan Miranda
79' Bologna Giovanni Fabbian 0.29 Open Play Saved Shot Riccardo Orsolini
84' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.38 Open Play Goal Juan Miranda
86' Bologna Giovanni Fabbian 0.06 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
86' Bologna Kacper Urbanski 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Jhon Lucumí

Players

Bologna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Riccardo Orsolini AMR 90 1 0 1 3 0.38 0.39 0.80
Dan Ndoye AML 90 0 0 3 0 0.16 0.00 0.65
Juan Miranda DL 90 0 1 3 6 0.08 0.76 0.96
Jhon Lucumí DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.06 0.45
Sam Beukema DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Federico Ravaglia GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.27
Remo Freuler DMC 83 0 0 2 1 0.59 0.04 0.93
Lorenzo De Silvestri DR 83 0 0 1 1 0.10 0.05 0.56
Santiago Castro FW 69 0 0 3 1 0.18 0.02 0.16
Jens Odgaard AMC 58 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Nikola Moro DMC 58 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.15
Thijs Dallinga Sub 32 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.14
Kacper Urbanski Sub 32 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.03 0.33
Giovanni Fabbian Sub 21 0 0 3 0 0.38 0.00 0.32
Stefan Posch Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lewis Ferguson Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Santiago Pierotti MR 90 0 0 1 3 0.56 0.15 0.72
Nikola Krstovic FW 90 0 0 3 1 0.13 0.01 0.66
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Antonino Gallo DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Kialonda Gaspar DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrick Dorgu MC 88 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.56 0.64
Ylber Ramadani MC 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hamza Rafia MC 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
Lameck Banda ML 58 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Frederic Guilbert DR 58 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Lassana Coulibaly Sub 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andy Pelmard Sub 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Balthazar Pierret Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicola Sansone Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ante Rebic Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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