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Bologna v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 18 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

3–1
2.34 – 0.41 xG
Shots
18 – 3
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 1
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.44 – +0.59
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.12.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Daniel Maldini 3' — goalSantiago Castro 21' — goalJens Odgaard 33' — goalRiccardo Orsolini 68' — goal
Bologna 2.56 xGMonza 0.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Santiago Castro 3' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 3' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Jhon Lucumí 10' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jens Odgaard 17' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 21' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 25' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Benjamín Domínguez 30' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 33' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 36' — Saved Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Stefan Posch 36' — Missed Shot (0.51 xG, Open Play)Benjamín Domínguez 45' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Sam Beukema 47' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Riccardo Orsolini 54' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bianco 55' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 57' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Thijs Dallinga 60' — Missed Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 66' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 68' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Thijs Dallinga 87' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jhon Lucumí 88' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Lorenzo De Silvestri 88' — Shot On Post (0.05 xG, From Corner)
Bologna attacking right Monza attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jens Odgaard
3' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Goal Patrick Ciurria
10' Bologna Jhon Lucumí 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Riccardo Orsolini
17' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Sam Beukema
21' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.34 Open Play Goal Riccardo Orsolini
25' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
30' Bologna Benjamín Domínguez 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Juan Miranda
33' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Benjamín Domínguez
36' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.43 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
36' Bologna Stefan Posch 0.51 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
45' Bologna Benjamín Domínguez 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Lewis Ferguson
47' Bologna Sam Beukema 0.07 From Corner Saved Shot Jhon Lucumí
54' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Thijs Dallinga
55' Monza Alessandro Bianco 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
57' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Juan Miranda
60' Bologna Thijs Dallinga 0.31 Open Play Missed Shot Riccardo Orsolini
66' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alessandro Bianco
68' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Goal Charalampos Lykogiannis
87' Bologna Thijs Dallinga 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Charalampos Lykogiannis
88' Bologna Jhon Lucumí 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
88' Bologna Lorenzo De Silvestri 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Shot On Post Giovanni Fabbian

Players

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Daniel Maldini FW 90 1 0 2 0 0.39 0.00 0.39
Alessandro Bianco MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.05
Stefano Turati GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrea Carboni DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrick Ciurria MR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.36 0.00
Armando Izzo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro ML 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Danilo D'Ambrosio DR 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Georgios Kyriakopoulos DL 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Milan Djuric FW 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Samuele Vignato Sub 52 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Warren Bondo MC 38 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Caprari Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kevin Martins Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stefano Sensi Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Omari Forson Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bologna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Riccardo Orsolini AMR 90 1 1 3 3 0.40 0.66 1.52
Jhon Lucumí DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.07 0.45
Sam Beukema DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.04 1.06
Lewis Ferguson DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.84
Federico Ravaglia GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Remo Freuler DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.84
Jens Odgaard AMC 83 1 0 4 1 0.57 0.09 1.31
Stefan Posch DR 83 0 0 1 0 0.51 0.00 0.99
Benjamín Domínguez AML 69 0 1 2 1 0.14 0.07 0.51
Juan Miranda DL 69 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.11
Santiago Castro FW 49 1 0 2 0 0.42 0.00 0.49
Thijs Dallinga Sub 41 0 0 2 1 0.33 0.02 0.37
Dan Ndoye Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Charalampos Lykogiannis Sub 21 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.34 0.32
Lorenzo De Silvestri Sub 7 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Giovanni Fabbian Sub 7 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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