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Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 December 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

1–1
0.43 – 1.31 xG
Shots
6 – 12
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+0.57 – -0.31
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.71.11.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Giovanni Reyna 45' — goalJacob Bruun Larsen 90' — goal
Borussia Dortmund 0.43 xGHoffenheim 1.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Andrej Kramaric 5' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Max Moerstedt 6' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Anton Stach 7' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Andrej Kramaric 15' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Nico Schlotterbeck 21' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Max Moerstedt 36' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Tom Bischof 40' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Reyna 45' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Max Moerstedt 45' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Karim Adeyemi 50' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Karim Adeyemi 54' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Tom Bischof 56' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 57' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 58' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 61' — Missed Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Serhou Guirassy 67' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Direct Freekick)Jacob Bruun Larsen 90' — Goal (0.47 xG, Open Play)Karim Adeyemi 92' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)
Borussia Dortmund attacking right Hoffenheim attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Tom Bischof
6' Hoffenheim Max Moerstedt 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Andrej Kramaric
7' Hoffenheim Anton Stach 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alexander Prass
15' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Anton Stach
21' Borussia Dortmund Nico Schlotterbeck 0.09 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Pascal Groß
36' Hoffenheim Max Moerstedt 0.06 Open Play Blocked Shot Tom Bischof
40' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Anton Stach
45' Borussia Dortmund Giovanni Reyna 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Goal
45' Hoffenheim Max Moerstedt 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Tom Bischof
50' Borussia Dortmund Karim Adeyemi 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ramy Bensebaini
54' Borussia Dortmund Karim Adeyemi 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
56' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alexander Prass
57' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tom Bischof
58' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Max Moerstedt
61' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.27 Open Play Missed Shot Alexander Prass
67' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.12 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
90' Hoffenheim Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.47 Open Play Left Foot Goal Haris Tabakovic
92' Borussia Dortmund Karim Adeyemi 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Borussia Dortmund

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Serhou Guirassy FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.00
Nico Schlotterbeck DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.04
Emre Can DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Felix Nmecha DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Gregor Kobel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Ramy Bensebaini DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Yan Couto DR 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giovanni Reyna AMC 78 1 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens AML 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Pascal Groß DMC 62 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.00
Maximilian Beier AMR 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Karim Adeyemi Sub 43 0 0 3 0 0.15 0.00 0.14
Marcel Sabitzer Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Julien Duranville Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kjell-Arik Wätjen Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yannik Lührs Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Hoffenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Adam Hlozek FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.41 0.00 0.62
Alexander Prass DL 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.40 0.53
Stanley N'Soki DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Oliver Baumann GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Valentin Gendrey DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.92
Arthur Chaves DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Andrej Kramaric ML 80 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.06 0.51
Anton Stach MC 80 0 0 1 2 0.11 0.12 0.35
Max Moerstedt FW 72 0 0 3 1 0.16 0.07 0.34
Tom Bischof MR 72 0 0 2 4 0.05 0.20 0.61
Diadie Samassékou MC 55 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub 35 1 0 1 0 0.47 0.00 0.53
Haris Tabakovic Sub 18 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.47 0.47
Dennis Geiger Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paul Hennrich Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kevin Akpoguma Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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