Borussia M.Gladbach v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 16 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 11
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.39
Goals − xG
+3.15 – -1.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia M.Gladbach win
35.8%
Draw
24.5%
Hoffenheim win
39.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–1.47 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia M.Gladbach 0.85 xGHoffenheim 1.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 6' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 12' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yannick Engelhardt |
| 13' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Wael Mohya |
| 22' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Wael Mohya | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yannick Engelhardt |
| 23' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nico Elvedi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 26' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Hoffenheim |
Bernardo | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 43' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yannick Engelhardt |
| 53' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo |
| 55' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 77' |
Hoffenheim |
Adam Hlozek | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 77' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Campbell |
| 80' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nico Elvedi |
| 89' |
Hoffenheim |
Adam Hlozek | 0.68 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nico Elvedi |
| 90' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Prass |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Joe Scally DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Yannick Engelhardt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Philipp Sander DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Hugo Bolin AMR | 68 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Wael Mohya AML | 68 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Kevin Stöger AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Robin Hack Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Franck Honorat Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Kleindienst Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wouter Burger DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bazoumana Touré AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Bernardo DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
| Fisnik Asllani AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Andrej Kramaric AMR | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Grischa Prömel Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cole Campbell Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.68 |
| Adam Hlozek Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Kevin Akpoguma Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |