Bournemouth v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 6
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.22 – -0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
36.8%
Draw
25.2%
Aston Villa win
38.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.54 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.22 xGAston Villa 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Aston Villa |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alex Scott |
| 26' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 42' |
Aston Villa |
Marco Asensio | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 45' |
Aston Villa |
Boubacar Kamara | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Ramsey |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
Boubacar Kamara | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Morgan Rogers |
| 68' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 80' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Brooks |
| 81' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | David Brooks |
| 82' |
Bournemouth |
Milos Kerkez | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Bournemouth |
Illia Zabarnyi | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 90' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Tavernier |
| 94' |
Bournemouth |
Daniel Jebbison | 0.68 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marcus Tavernier AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| Lewis Cook AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kepa GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Adam Smith DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Justin Kluivert Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| David Brooks Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.39 |
| Marcos Senesi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Julián Araujo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| Morgan Rogers AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.89 |
| Jacob Ramsey AML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.51 |
| Marco Asensio AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Pau Torres Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| John McGinn Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |