Bournemouth v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.07 – +0.07
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
48.2%
Draw
22.8%
Brentford win
29.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.37 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 1.07 xGBrentford 1.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Reguilón |
| 6' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 15' |
 Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 16' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Brentford |
Ivan Toney | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 22' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Kluivert |
| 32' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Brentford |
Ivan Toney | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 39' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 44' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 53' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Brentford |
Ivan Toney | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 59' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Nørgaard |
| 61' |
Brentford |
Ethan Pinnock | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Collins |
| 64' |
Bournemouth |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 65' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 65' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 79' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 85' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yoane Wissa |
| 88' |
Bournemouth |
Dominic Solanke | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Goal | Marcos Senesi |
| 90' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Scott |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bryan Mbeumo |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.92 |
| Lloyd Kelly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mark Travers GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Adam Smith DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dango Ouattara AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marcus Tavernier Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alex Scott Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo FWR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.43 | 1.65 |
| Ivan Toney FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Sergio Reguilón DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.35 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Vitaly Janelt MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter FWL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| Christian Nørgaard MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mads Roerslev Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.75 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kevin Schade Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |