Bournemouth v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 9
On target
8 – 0
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.31 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-1.84 – -0.56
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
54.1%
Draw
21.9%
Everton win
24.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.24 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 2.84 xGEverton 0.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Everton |
Orel Mangala | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 12' |
Everton |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 19' |
Everton |
Armando Broja | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 23' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 25' |
Bournemouth |
James Hill | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dango Ouattara |
| 27' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 29' |
Bournemouth |
Illia Zabarnyi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 34' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Evanilson |
| 39' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Everton |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 42' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 45' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Evanilson |
| 48' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 49' |
Bournemouth |
Dean Huijsen | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 51' |
Everton |
Harrison Armstrong | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bournemouth |
Dango Ouattara | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Everton |
Nathan Patterson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harrison Armstrong |
| 73' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Milos Kerkez |
| 77' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 79' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Illia Zabarnyi |
| 82' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 85' |
Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.13 | 0.37 | 1.70 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.66 | 1.26 |
| Ryan Christie DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.62 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mark Travers GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| Evanilson FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Dango Ouattara AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 1.20 |
| Justin Kluivert AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| James Hill DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tyler Adams Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| David Brooks Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Ashley Young DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jesper Lindstrom AMR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Orel Mangala DMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Harrison Armstrong Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| Nathan Patterson Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Armando Broja FW | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Beto Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |