Bournemouth v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
28 – 5
On target
10 – 2
Shots in box
22 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.42 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.55 – +1.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bournemouth win
57.3%
Draw
23.7%
West Ham United win
19.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.84–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.97–1.07 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bournemouth 3.55 xGWest Ham United 0.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bournemouth attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Alphonse Areola |
| 20' |
 Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Brooks |
| 25' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | David Brooks |
| 26' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 29' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Guilherme |
| 34' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Jean-Clair Todibo |
| 46' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Alex Scott | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 59' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eli Junior Kroupi |
| 60' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Christie |
| 62' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 70' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 75' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 76' |
Bournemouth |
Eli Junior Kroupi | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 80' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Marcos Senesi |
| 83' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.45 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.13 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Amine Adli | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Senesi |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Enes Ünal | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 87' |
Bournemouth |
Ryan Christie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Adli |
| 89' |
Bournemouth |
Marcus Tavernier | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 90' |
Bournemouth |
Evanilson | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 90' |
Bournemouth |
Marcos Senesi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 93' |
Bournemouth |
Lewis Cook | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Tavernier AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Evanilson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Marcos Senesi DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.76 | 1.00 |
| Lewis Cook DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.95 |
| Djordje Petrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.45 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.15 | 1.27 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| David Brooks AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| Alex Scott DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Bafode Diakite DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ryan Christie Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.82 |
| Alejandro Jiménez Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.45 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Adam Smith Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Igor Julio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Freddie Potts MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Callum Wilson FW | 55 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Luis Guilherme FWL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomas Soucek Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |