Boyacá Chicó v Once Caldas — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000080 · 2627
FIFA:2000000080 results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.8%
- 1-2 8.7%
- 0-1 8.6%
- 2-1 8.0%
- 1-0 8.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.9% | Under 2.5 | 46.1% |
| BTTS yes | 57.4% | BTTS no | 42.6% |
| Boyacá Chicó 1+ | 74.4% | Boyacá Chicó 2+ | 39.6% |
| Once Caldas 1+ | 77.1% | Once Caldas 2+ | 43.3% |
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.47. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Once Caldas carry the stronger rating, 1568 Elo against 1500.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Boyacá Chicó have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Once Caldas have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 35.0% for Boyacá Chicó and 25.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.36 for Boyacá Chicó and 1.47 for Once Caldas.
Why Boyacá Chicó
At home Boyacá Chicó average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Once Caldas's 4.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.1%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.36 to 1.47.
Why Once Caldas can win
Once Caldas carry the stronger rating, 1568 Elo against 1500.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Boyacá Chicó, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Once Caldas, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Boyacá Chicó: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Once Caldas: 55% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 21:18 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Once Caldas are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.36–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.