Braga v Sporting CP — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Braga

14:00

Sporting CP

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 860h before kick-off

Braga win

28.0%

model 29.4%

Draw

23.4%

model 22.6%

Sporting CP win

48.6%

model 48.0%

282349

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
0-1 9.6%
1-2 9.4%
0-2 7.5%
1-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.3%	Under 2.5	43.7%
BTTS yes	57.6%	BTTS no	42.4%
Braga 1+	71.6%	Braga 2+	35.8%
Sporting CP 1+	81.4%	Sporting CP 2+	50.1%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.68. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1812 Elo against 1639.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sporting CP have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 28.0% for Braga and 23.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.26 for Braga and 1.68 for Sporting CP.

Why Braga

Nothing in the data singles out Braga.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Sporting CP can win

Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1812 Elo against 1639. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Braga, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sporting CP, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Braga: 58% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sporting CP: 59% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Sporting CP are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	292150	1.37–1.88	1-2 9%	63%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win	50.1%	51.4%	31.4%	1.64×	1.95
Braga to win	28.7%	27.9%	42.2%	0.66×	3.59
Draw	21.2%	24.4%	26.6%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & both teams score	28.0%	25.2%	11.7%	2.14×	3.97
Sporting CP & not both score	22.1%	21.9%	19.8%	1.11×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Braga & both teams score	16.7%	17.9%	16.2%	1.10×	5.58
Braga & not both score	12.0%	13.3%	26.1%	0.51×	7.54
Draw & not both score	3.2%	4.9%	6.3%	0.77×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP & over 1.5	42.2%	40.3%	22.4%	1.80×	2.48
Sporting CP & over 2.5	35.4%	34.9%	17.3%	2.02×	2.87
Sporting CP & under 3.5	28.4%	26.0%	25.5%	1.02×	3.84
Braga & over 1.5	22.8%	21.7%	31.5%	0.69×	4.62
Sporting CP & over 3.5	21.7%	21.7%	6.0%	3.59×	4.62
Braga & over 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	24.7%	0.73×	5.56
Braga & under 3.5	18.1%	18.0%	29.2%	0.62×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Sporting CP & under 2.5	14.7%	12.9%	14.2%	0.91×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	12.6%	12.9%	17.2%	0.75×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	12.6%	12.9%	17.2%	0.75×	7.77
Braga & over 3.5	10.7%	12.9%	13.1%	0.98×	7.77
Braga & under 2.5	9.6%	7.9%	17.6%	0.45×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	8.6%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	8.6%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.69
Sporting CP & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	9.1%	0.86×	12.70
Braga & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	3.2%	4.8%	6.3%	0.75×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (1UP)	66.6%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Braga (1UP)	48.7%	43.3%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (2UP)	50.1%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Braga (2UP)	28.7%	25.0%	—	—	4.01

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win 2nd half	43.9%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	30.6%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Braga to win 2nd half	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (+2.5)	95.7%	96.3%	89.6%	1.07×	1.04
Sporting CP (+1.5)	87.7%	88.5%	77.7%	1.14×	1.13
Sporting CP (+0.5)	71.3%	73.7%	57.8%	1.27×	1.36
Sporting CP (-0.5)	50.1%	52.3%	31.4%	1.67×	1.91
Braga (+0.5)	49.9%	47.7%	68.6%	0.69×	2.10
Braga (-0.5)	28.7%	26.3%	42.2%	0.62×	3.80
Braga (-1.5)	12.3%	11.5%	22.3%	0.52×	8.70
Braga (-2.5)	4.3%	3.7%	10.4%	0.36×	26.79

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to concede	74.7%	76.5%	74.0%	1.03×	1.31
Sporting CP clean sheet	25.3%	23.5%	26.0%	0.91×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP clean sheet in 1st half	55.4%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Sporting CP to concede in 1st half	44.6%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP under 6.5 corners	83.2%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Sporting CP over 2.5 corners	73.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sporting CP under 5.5 corners	73.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sporting CP under 4.5 corners	59.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sporting CP over 3.5 corners	56.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sporting CP under 3.5 corners	43.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Sporting CP over 4.5 corners	40.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Sporting CP over 5.5 corners	26.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sporting CP under 2.5 corners	26.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sporting CP over 6.5 corners	16.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.40

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP under 3.5 goals	87.8%	87.9%	96.1%	0.91×	1.14
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals	84.8%	81.4%	67.7%	1.20×	1.23
Sporting CP under 2.5 goals	70.9%	71.9%	88.9%	0.81×	1.39
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals	56.1%	59.5%	34.6%	1.72×	1.68
Sporting CP under 1.5 goals	43.9%	40.5%	65.4%	0.62×	2.47
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals	29.1%	28.1%	11.1%	2.52×	3.56
Sporting CP under 0.5 goals	15.2%	18.6%	32.3%	0.57×	5.39
Sporting CP over 3.5 goals	12.2%	12.1%	3.9%	3.14×	8.26

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP under 1.5 in 1st half	82.6%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Sporting CP over 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Sporting CP under 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Sporting CP over 1.5 in 1st half	17.4%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (away no bet)	57.5%	57.5%	61.3%	0.94×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.5%	42.5%	38.7%	1.10×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP even goals	51.2%	52.8%	58.6%	0.90×	1.89
Sporting CP odd goals	48.8%	47.2%	41.4%	1.14×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.9%	82.2%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.1%	17.8%	—	—	5.62

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.4%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.6%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.1%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Sporting CP to score 2+ in a row	45.9%	45.8%	—	—	2.19
Braga to score 2+ in a row	28.8%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.5%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Sporting CP to score 3+ in a row	18.8%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Braga to score 3+ in a row	8.3%	5.7%	—	—	17.62

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP corners (+3.5)	85.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Braga corners (+3.5)	85.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Sporting CP corners (+2.5)	77.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Braga corners (+2.5)	77.2%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Sporting CP corners (+1.5)	67.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Braga corners (+1.5)	67.3%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Sporting CP corners (-1.5)	32.7%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Braga corners (-1.5)	32.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Sporting CP corners (-2.5)	22.8%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Braga corners (-2.5)	22.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Sporting CP corners (-3.5)	15.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Braga corners (-3.5)	14.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.8%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	17.9%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.8%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	82.1%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	74.7%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	65.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	56.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	43.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 10.5 corners	25.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	17.9%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	12.2%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.4%	7.4%	11.0%	0.68×	13.48
1-2	9.4%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.48
0-2	6.8%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.48
2-1	6.8%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
1-0	5.9%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.48
1-3	5.9%	7.4%	1.4%	5.33×	13.48
2-2	6.4%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.48
Any other score	5.5%	7.4%	2.9%	2.53×	13.48
0-0	3.2%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.47
0-3	4.3%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.47
0-4	2.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.48
1-4	2.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.47
2-0	3.6%	1.7%	7.0%	0.25×	58.47
2-3	4.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.47
2-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.48
3-0	1.7%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.48
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.47
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.47
3-3	1.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.48
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.2%	11.06×	58.48
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.49
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.48
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.48
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.49
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP leading at HT (DNB)	58.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Braga leading at HT (DNB)	41.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga or Sporting CP (12)	78.8%	75.6%	73.4%	1.03×	1.32
Sporting CP or draw (X2)	71.3%	72.1%	57.8%	1.25×	1.39
Braga or draw (1X)	49.9%	48.6%	68.6%	0.71×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw at HT	74.4%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Braga or draw at HT	64.5%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Braga or Sporting CP at HT	61.2%	62.1%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw (1UP)	71.3%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Braga or draw (1UP)	49.9%	52.9%	—	—	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP or draw in 2nd half	74.5%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Braga or Sporting CP in 2nd half	69.4%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Braga or draw in 2nd half	56.1%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.7%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (DNB)	63.5%	62.8%	42.6%	1.47×	1.59
Braga (DNB)	36.5%	37.2%	57.4%	0.65×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score first	55.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Braga to score first	40.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	3.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.7%	56.5%	48.1%	1.18×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.3%	43.5%	51.9%	0.84×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	53.3%	47.1%	37.2%	1.26×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	27.5%	33.6%	37.9%	0.89×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	9.8%	8.4%	14.2%	0.59×	11.95
Both score & under 2.5	9.4%	8.4%	11.0%	0.76×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	77.6%	79.9%	85.9%	0.93×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	22.4%	20.1%	14.1%	1.43×	4.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.5%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.5%	33.9%	—	—	2.95

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	48.6%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Both score 2nd half only	27.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	14.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Both score in both halves	8.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.66

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.5%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.7%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	37.3%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.0%	42.1%	45.8%	0.92×	2.38
4-6 goals	36.2%	35.1%	27.7%	1.27×	2.85
0-1 goals	17.0%	20.2%	26.0%	0.78×	4.96
7+ goals	4.8%	1.8%	0.9%	1.99×	54.30

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score 3+	29.1%	27.4%	11.1%	2.46×	3.65
Sporting CP to score exactly 1	28.7%	27.4%	33.2%	0.83×	3.65
Sporting CP to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.65
Sporting CP to score exactly 0	15.2%	19.6%	32.3%	0.61×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to score exactly 1	34.8%	32.7%	31.5%	1.04×	3.06
Braga to score exactly 0	25.3%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Braga to score exactly 2	23.9%	23.2%	23.6%	0.98×	4.30
Braga to score 3+	16.0%	18.9%	19.2%	0.99×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.8%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Sporting CP leading at HT	35.5%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Braga leading at HT	25.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP -1: 1	49.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sporting CP -1: 2	27.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Sporting CP -1: X	22.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:1)	71.3%	71.0%	57.8%	1.23×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	16.4%	17.8%	20.1%	0.88×	5.63
Braga (0:1)	12.3%	13.8%	22.3%	0.62×	7.23

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:2)	87.7%	87.0%	77.7%	1.12×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.0%	7.7%	12.1%	0.64×	12.94
Braga (0:2)	4.3%	3.8%	10.4%	0.36×	26.50

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:3)	95.7%	96.6%	89.6%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.1%	2.4%	6.0%	0.39×	42.13
Braga (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	4.5%	0.53×	42.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	95.5%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	3.2%	0.37×	83.57
Braga (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.86×	83.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (1:0)	49.9%	49.8%	68.6%	0.73×	2.01
Sporting CP (1:0)	27.8%	25.1%	13.8%	1.83×	3.98
Draw (1:0)	22.3%	21.8%	17.8%	1.23×	4.59

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga (2:0)	72.2%	76.4%	86.2%	0.89×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	15.0%	10.4%	7.1%	1.46×	9.61
Sporting CP (2:0)	12.8%	10.4%	6.8%	1.53×	9.63

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.3%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	21.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to concede	84.8%	80.9%	67.7%	1.19×	1.24
Braga clean sheet	15.2%	19.1%	32.3%	0.59×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga to concede in 1st half	52.9%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Braga clean sheet in 1st half	47.1%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga under 6.5 corners	83.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Braga under 5.5 corners	73.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Braga over 2.5 corners	73.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Braga under 4.5 corners	60.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Braga over 3.5 corners	56.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Braga under 3.5 corners	43.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Braga over 4.5 corners	40.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Braga under 2.5 corners	26.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Braga over 5.5 corners	26.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Braga over 6.5 corners	16.5%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga under 3.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	93.5%	0.99×	1.08
Braga under 2.5 goals	84.0%	82.1%	80.8%	1.02×	1.22
Braga over 0.5 goals	74.7%	74.2%	74.0%	1.00×	1.35
Braga under 1.5 goals	60.1%	63.5%	57.3%	1.11×	1.58
Braga over 1.5 goals	39.9%	36.5%	42.7%	0.86×	2.74
Braga under 0.5 goals	25.3%	25.8%	26.0%	0.99×	3.87
Braga over 2.5 goals	16.0%	17.9%	19.2%	0.93×	5.59
Braga over 3.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	6.5%	1.19×	12.93

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga under 1.5 in 1st half	88.1%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Braga under 0.5 in 1st half	55.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Braga over 0.5 in 1st half	44.6%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Braga over 1.5 in 1st half	11.9%	10.2%	—	—	9.78

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP (home no bet)	70.2%	66.3%	54.1%	1.22×	1.51
Draw (home no bet)	29.8%	33.7%	45.9%	0.73×	2.97

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga even goals	53.2%	50.6%	54.6%	0.93×	1.98
Braga odd goals	46.8%	49.4%	45.4%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 0-1	19.7%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-0	15.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-1	11.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-2	7.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
Any other HT score	6.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.28
HT 1-2	4.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.29
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.52

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP at HT / Sporting CP at FT	28.8%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Draw at HT / Sporting CP at FT	17.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Braga at HT / Braga at FT	16.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Braga at FT	10.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Braga at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Sporting CP at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Braga at HT / Sporting CP at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Sporting CP at HT / Braga at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.88

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to score last	55.9%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Braga to score last	40.9%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	3.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.40

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.8%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Sporting CP to lead by 1 at any time	66.6%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.5%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Braga to lead by 1 at any time	48.7%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Sporting CP to lead by 2 at any time	35.8%	34.8%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Braga to lead by 2 at any time	19.1%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Sporting CP to lead by 3 at any time	16.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Braga to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.12

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP most corners	44.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Braga most corners	43.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	12.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.6%	87.4%	90.0%	0.97×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.2%	78.6%	73.3%	1.07×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.8%	72.4%	83.2%	0.87×	1.38
2-5 goals	71.8%	72.4%	70.3%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.0%	63.4%	63.5%	1.00×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.4%	59.2%	50.5%	1.17×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.8%	59.2%	65.4%	0.91×	1.69
3-5 goals	52.0%	53.2%	47.6%	1.12×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.0%	43.6%	45.8%	0.95×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	40.8%	1.07×	2.30
4-6 goals	36.2%	39.1%	27.7%	1.41×	2.56
1-2 goals	33.6%	35.4%	42.5%	0.83×	2.83
4-5 goals	29.8%	30.3%	24.7%	1.22×	3.31
5-6 goals	18.1%	18.6%	9.9%	1.88×	5.37
7+ goals	4.8%	2.6%	0.9%	2.76×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP never behind	48.1%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Braga never behind	30.2%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	48.8%	50.8%	50.1%	1.01×	1.97
Odd number of goals	51.2%	49.2%	49.9%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.8%	95.5%	93.7%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.8%	87.7%	96.1%	0.91×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.0%	82.4%	74.0%	1.11×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	77.1%	77.3%	89.3%	0.87×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	63.2%	61.8%	51.3%	1.20×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	59.0%	58.8%	71.6%	0.82×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	41.0%	41.2%	28.4%	1.45×	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	36.8%	38.2%	48.7%	0.79×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	22.9%	22.7%	10.7%	2.12×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.0%	17.6%	26.0%	0.68×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	11.2%	12.3%	3.9%	3.20×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	3.2%	4.5%	6.3%	0.71×	22.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.9%	92.5%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.3%	86.7%	95.9%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.8%	75.9%	66.4%	1.14×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	72.0%	72.6%	87.0%	0.83×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.7%	51.8%	36.9%	1.41×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.3%	48.2%	63.1%	0.76×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	28.0%	27.4%	13.0%	2.12×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.2%	24.1%	33.6%	0.72×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.7%	13.3%	4.1%	3.20×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.1%	7.5%	1.0%	7.88×	13.28

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.7%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.0%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.3%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.7%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.0%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.3%	13.7%	—	—	7.32

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	70.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	29.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga not to score in both halves	75.8%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Sporting CP not to score in both halves	64.2%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Sporting CP to score in both halves	35.8%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Braga to score in both halves	24.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.7%	60.2%	48.1%	1.25×	1.66
Only Sporting CP scores	22.1%	22.3%	19.8%	1.13×	4.48
Only Braga scores	12.0%	10.9%	26.1%	0.42×	9.15
Neither team scores	3.2%	4.6%	6.3%	0.72×	21.85

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	19.8%	17.4%	22.9%	0.76×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	18.1%	17.4%	17.9%	0.97×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	13.8%	12.1%	19.8%	0.61×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	11.8%	12.1%	7.0%	1.74×	8.28
6 or more goals	11.2%	12.1%	3.9%	3.13×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	3.2%	4.4%	6.3%	0.70×	22.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	56.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	28.7%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	14.6%	14.6%	—	—	6.87

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga not to win both halves	93.5%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Sporting CP not to win both halves	84.5%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Sporting CP to win both halves	15.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Braga to win both halves	6.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.60

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP to win either half	63.9%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Braga to win neither half	55.3%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Braga to win either half	44.7%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
Sporting CP to win neither half	36.1%	34.9%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Braga not to win to nil	88.0%	88.2%	73.9%	1.19×	1.13
Sporting CP not to win to nil	77.9%	78.1%	80.2%	0.97×	1.28
Sporting CP to win to nil	22.1%	21.9%	19.8%	1.11×	4.56
Braga to win to nil	12.0%	11.8%	26.1%	0.45×	8.49

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting CP by 1	22.3%	24.1%	17.8%	1.36×	4.14
Draw	21.2%	24.1%	26.6%	0.91×	4.14
Braga by 1	16.4%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.91
Sporting CP by 2	15.0%	11.8%	7.1%	1.66×	8.47
Sporting CP by 3+	12.8%	11.8%	6.8%	1.74×	8.47
Braga by 2	8.0%	7.3%	12.1%	0.60×	13.78
Braga by 3+	4.3%	2.7%	10.4%	0.26×	36.94