Brentford v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.49
Goals − xG
-0.65 – -0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
43.6%
Draw
24.6%
Aston Villa win
31.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.57 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 0.65 xGAston Villa 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 6' |
 Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Axel Disasi |
| 9' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 11' |
Aston Villa |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 13' |
Aston Villa |
Jacob Ramsey | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.38 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 29' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 32' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 48' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jacob Ramsey |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 69' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Yoane Wissa |
| 79' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 81' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 82' |
Brentford |
Kristoffer Ajer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Nørgaard |
| 83' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Nørgaard |
| 86' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| Axel Disasi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.37 |
| Robin Olsen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Ramsey AML | 69 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| John McGinn DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Leon Bailey AMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Matthew Cash Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Boubacar Kamara Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kim Ji-Soo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |