Brentford v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 October 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 17
On target
12 – 6
Shots in box
14 – 10
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
1.20 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.86 – +2.30
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brentford win
54.6%
Draw
22.0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
23.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.95–1.21 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brentford 4.14 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brentford attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 2' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 3' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nélson Semedo |
| 5' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 6' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 9' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Forbs |
| 19' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 21' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 25' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Toti | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | André |
| 27' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vitaly Janelt |
| 29' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
| 30' |
Brentford |
Ethan Pinnock | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 32' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 34' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Gomes |
| 39' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André |
| 46' |
Brentford |
Ethan Pinnock | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Goal | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 51' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Christian Nørgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sepp van den Berg |
| 53' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 58' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Brentford |
Ethan Pinnock | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 64' |
Brentford |
Nathan Collins | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 66' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 74' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 79' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Lemina |
| 80' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 85' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Craig Dawson | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 89' |
Brentford |
Fabio Carvalho | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mario Lemina | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 92' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rayan Ait Nouri | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 94' |
Brentford |
Yunus Konak | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keane Lewis-Potter |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.83 | 0.45 | 1.24 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.62 |
| Sepp van den Berg DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 1.20 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.55 | 0.90 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 1.28 | 1.16 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Kevin Schade FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Fabio Carvalho Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Yunus Konak Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mads Roerslev Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Mario Lemina MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Craig Dawson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DL | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| Nélson Semedo DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Sam Johnstone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| João Gomes MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Carlos Forbs MR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| André DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gonçalo Guedes Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |