Brest v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 17
On target
5 – 8
Shots in box
7 – 14
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 1.51
Goals − xG
-0.06 – +0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
48.6%
Draw
26.1%
Lens win
25.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 1.06 xGLens 2.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Brest |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pereira Lage |
| 15' |
 Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | Anass Zaroury |
| 23' |
Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.26 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Malang Sarr |
| 27' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 29' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Goduine Koyalipou |
| 30' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anass Zaroury |
| 30' |
Lens |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Facundo Medina |
| 32' |
Brest |
Massadio Haidara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 34' |
Brest |
Mahdi Camara | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 38' |
Brest |
Abdallah Sima | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brendan Chardonnet |
| 41' |
Brest |
Pereira Lage | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Massadio Haidara |
| 45' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 45' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Lens |
Jeremy Agbonifo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Goduine Koyalipou |
| 51' |
Lens |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 52' |
Brest |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Lens |
Jeremy Agbonifo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 66' |
Brest |
Mahdi Camara | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 66' |
Brest |
Massadio Haidara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Brest |
Mahdi Camara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julien Le Cardinal |
| 83' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 84' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 85' |
Brest |
Brendan Chardonnet | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 89' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.38 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Adrien Thomasson |
| 93' |
Brest |
Romain Faivre | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mama Baldé |
| 94' |
Lens |
Andy Diouf | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley Said |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Pereira Lage FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| Massadio Haidara DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.47 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 0.66 |
| Edimilson Fernandes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Marco Bizot GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Hugo Magnetti MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| Abdallah Sima FWL | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Niakhate Ndiaye DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Julien Le Cardinal Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mama Baldé Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Kamory Doumbia Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romain Del Castillo Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Romain Faivre Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 1.01 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.12 | 0.57 |
| Anass Zaroury DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.40 | 0.63 |
| Andy Diouf AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 0.64 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.81 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Jeremy Agbonifo Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Florian Sotoca AMC | 35 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Wesley Said Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Tom Pouilly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |