Brest v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.65
Goals − xG
+1.43 – +1.16
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
30.7%
Draw
27.5%
Lille win
41.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.67 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 1.57 xGLille 1.84 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Brest |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 10' |
 Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Felix Correia |
| 16' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 16' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 25' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mama Baldé |
| 39' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Broholm |
| 40' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bradley Locko |
| 42' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 45' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Brest |
Hugo Magnetti | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 46' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 48' |
Brest |
Julien Le Cardinal | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mama Baldé |
| 50' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mama Baldé |
| 57' |
Brest |
Julien Le Cardinal | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 60' |
Lille |
Ngal'ayel Mukau | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 63' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 65' |
Lille |
Ngal'ayel Mukau | 0.60 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Nathan Ngoy |
| 65' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 74' |
Brest |
Julien Le Cardinal | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kenny Lala |
| 74' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Brest |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 80' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 84' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Lille |
Ayyoub Bouaddi | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vincent Burlet |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamory Doumbia MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 1.10 |
| Julien Le Cardinal DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Mama Baldé FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Hugo Magnetti MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Romain Del Castillo FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Radoslaw Majecki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Bradley Locko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Luc Zogbe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ngal'ayel Mukau DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Felix Correia AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.44 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.18 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| Ousmane Touré DR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Marius Broholm AMR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Maxima Goffi Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Vincent Burlet Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |