Brest v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 4
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.32
Goals − xG
-0.05 – -0.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brest win
50.8%
Draw
21.7%
Lorient win
27.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brest are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLLDDD last 10
scored 13
from 15.9 xG
conceded 23
from 18.4 xG
Lorient are finishing below their chances — 2.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLWLDWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 14.4 xG
conceded 13
from 16.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.61–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.67–1.54 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brest 2.05 xGLorient 0.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brest attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 12' |
 Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 22' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 22' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
| 26' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 28' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 29' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Laurent Abergel |
| 32' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 35' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 44' |
Lorient |
Montassar Talbi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Remy Labeau Lascary |
| 62' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 65' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 76' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.97 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 89' |
Lorient |
Mohamed Bamba | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dermane Karim |
| 93' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 96' |
Lorient |
Montassar Talbi | 0.24 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 97' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenny Lala |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.05 | 0.16 | 1.70 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Kamory Doumbia AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary AML | 76 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.08 | 0.71 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darline Yongwa Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.00 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Mohamed Bamba Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |