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Brest v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 11 January 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–1
1.29 – 1.40 xG
Shots
11 – 10
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.35
Goals − xG
+0.70 – -0.40
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Mahdi Camara 7' — goalLudovic Ajorque 24' — goalJordan Veretout 46' — goal
Brest 1.30 xGLyon 1.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ludovic Ajorque 7' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Mahdi Camara 7' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Corentin Tolisso 16' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Massadio Haidara 21' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ludovic Ajorque 24' — Goal (0.47 xG, Open Play)Alexandre Lacazette 27' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Tanner Tessmann 28' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nicolás Tagliafico 42' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Corentin Tolisso 44' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Brendan Chardonnet 46' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Jordan Veretout 46' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Mama Baldé 50' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Duje Caleta-Car 59' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Mahdi Camara 60' — Missed Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Mama Baldé 61' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Tanner Tessmann 65' — Missed Shot (0.17 xG, From Corner)Alexandre Lacazette 67' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Edimilson Fernandes 71' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Mama Baldé 72' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Pereira Lage 77' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Said Benrahma 83' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)
Brest attacking right Lyon attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Massadio Haidara
7' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Goal
16' Lyon Corentin Tolisso 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Mathis Cherki
21' Brest Massadio Haidara 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ludovic Ajorque
24' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.47 Open Play Left Foot Goal Mahdi Camara
27' Lyon Alexandre Lacazette 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mathis Cherki
28' Lyon Tanner Tessmann 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
42' Lyon Nicolás Tagliafico 0.04 From Corner Blocked Shot Mathis Cherki
44' Lyon Corentin Tolisso 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mathis Cherki
46' Brest Brendan Chardonnet 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Ludovic Ajorque
46' Lyon Jordan Veretout 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Goal Malick Fofana
50' Brest Mama Baldé 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Edimilson Fernandes
59' Lyon Duje Caleta-Car 0.03 Set Piece Missed Shot Mathis Cherki
60' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kamory Doumbia
61' Brest Mama Baldé 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Kamory Doumbia
65' Lyon Tanner Tessmann 0.17 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
67' Lyon Alexandre Lacazette 0.31 Open Play Saved Shot Mathis Cherki
71' Brest Edimilson Fernandes 0.08 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
72' Brest Mama Baldé 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Kamory Doumbia
77' Brest Pereira Lage 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Romain Del Castillo
83' Lyon Said Benrahma 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ludovic Ajorque FW 90 1 0 2 2 0.57 0.05 0.92
Mahdi Camara MC 90 1 1 2 1 0.37 0.47 0.84
Edimilson Fernandes MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.03 0.17
Brendan Chardonnet DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.14
Kenny Lala DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Niakhate Ndiaye DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Marco Bizot GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Hugo Magnetti MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.51
Mama Baldé FW 82 0 0 3 0 0.09 0.00 0.65
Kamory Doumbia AMC 82 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.37 0.97
Massadio Haidara DL 52 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.11 0.14
Jordan Amavi Sub 38 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pereira Lage Sub 8 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Romain Del Castillo Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.12
Abdallah Sima Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Luc Zogbe Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lyon

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Corentin Tolisso MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.71
Duje Caleta-Car DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.70
Clinton Mata DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Mathis Cherki MR 90 0 0 0 6 0.00 0.83 0.70
Moussa Niakhate DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.71
Lucas Perri GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Malick Fofana ML 86 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.32 0.72
Alexandre Lacazette FW 82 0 0 2 0 0.61 0.00 0.61
Tanner Tessmann DMC 73 0 0 2 0 0.21 0.00 0.33
Jordan Veretout MC 52 1 0 1 0 0.32 0.00 0.62
Nicolás Tagliafico DL 52 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.71
Ernest Nuamah Sub 38 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Abner Sub 38 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ainsley Maitland-Niles Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Georges Mikautadze Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Said Benrahma Sub 4 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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