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Brest v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 August 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–5
1.51 – 2.96 xG
Shots
10 – 7
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 7
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.42
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 1.52
Goals − xG
-0.51 – +2.03
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.72.53.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Mason Greenwood 2' — goalLuis Henrique 25' — goalMason Greenwood 30' — goalLuis Henrique 47' — goalMahdi Camara 50' — goalSepe Elye Wahi 68' — goal
Brest 1.51 xGMarseille 2.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mason Greenwood 2' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Romain Del Castillo 8' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Ludovic Ajorque 16' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Pereira Lage 17' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jeremy Le Douaron 23' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Luis Henrique 25' — Goal (0.44 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 30' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Pereira Lage 33' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Pereira Lage 39' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Luis Henrique 47' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Mahdi Camara 50' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pol Lirola 51' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Brendan Chardonnet 59' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Luis Henrique 61' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 68' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Romain Del Castillo 82' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Hianga'a M'Bock 90' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Brest attacking right Marseille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Amine Harit
8' Brest Romain Del Castillo 0.76 Left Foot Saved Shot
16' Brest Ludovic Ajorque 0.14 Open Play Saved Shot Romain Del Castillo
17' Brest Pereira Lage 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
23' Brest Jeremy Le Douaron 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
25' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Goal Amine Harit
30' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.76 Right Foot Goal
33' Brest Pereira Lage 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mahdi Camara
39' Brest Pereira Lage 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
47' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.52 Open Play Left Foot Goal
50' Brest Mahdi Camara 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal Romain Del Castillo
51' Marseille Pol Lirola 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Luis Henrique
59' Brest Brendan Chardonnet 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Romain Del Castillo
61' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Amine Harit
68' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.76 Right Foot Goal
82' Brest Romain Del Castillo 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
90' Brest Hianga'a M'Bock 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luc Zogbe

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Romain Del Castillo FWR 90 0 1 2 4 0.81 0.26 0.28
Jeremy Le Douaron FWL 90 0 0 1 0 0.37 0.00 0.37
Brendan Chardonnet DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Mahdi Camara MC 90 1 0 1 1 0.03 0.01 0.11
Marco Bizot GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kenny Lala DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Julien Le Cardinal DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jordan Amavi DL 89 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pereira Lage MC 75 0 0 3 0 0.12 0.00 0.15
Jonas Martin MC 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Ludovic Ajorque FW 69 0 0 1 0 0.14 0.00 0.14
Romain Faivre Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Hianga'a M'Bock Sub 15 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Axel Camblan Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Luc Zogbe Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.01

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Luis Henrique AML 90 2 0 3 1 1.05 0.35 1.44
Mason Greenwood AMR 90 2 0 2 0 0.81 0.00 0.58
Quentin Merlin DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.49
Leonardo Balerdi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.49
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.49
Amir Murillo DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.44
Amine Harit AMC 90 0 2 0 3 0.00 0.58 0.58
Derek Cornelius DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.49
Sepe Elye Wahi FW 76 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.35
Pol Lirola DL 76 0 0 1 0 0.35 0.00 0.49
Bamo Meïté Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Faris Moumbagna Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Enzo Sternal Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Keyliane Abdallah Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Valentin Rongier Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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