Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 1.08
Goals − xG
-0.77 – -0.81
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
17.7%
Draw
22.7%
Arsenal win
59.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 0.88–1.82 | 0-1 12% | 50% | 49% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.77 xGArsenal 1.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Declan Rice |
| 9' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jorginho |
| 15' |
Arsenal |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mikel Merino |
| 18' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Brajan Gruda | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Simon Adingra |
| 33' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Matt O'Riley | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 38' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
| 39' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Jesus | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 42' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yasin Ayari |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Estupiñán | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Paul van Hecke |
| 57' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.43 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 60' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 76' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joël Veltman |
| 78' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Merino |
| 84' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Arsenal |
Thomas Partey | 0.15 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 90' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Adam Webster | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 92' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Jesus |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Jesus FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.79 | 0.09 | 0.38 |
| Mikel Merino MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 0.65 |
| Thomas Partey DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Leandro Trossard FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 1.11 | 0.06 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Jorginho MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Ethan Nwaneri FWR | 50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Gabriel Martinelli Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Odegaard Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Yasin Ayari DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Estupiñán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| Igor Julio DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Simon Adingra AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.11 | 0.61 |
| Brajan Gruda AMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Matt O'Riley AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| Yankuba Minteh Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kaoru Mitoma Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Webster Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |