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Brighton and Hove Albion v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 6 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
18 – 8
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.94
Goals − xG
+0.46 – -0.23
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Bryan Mbeumo 26' — goalPascal Groß 30' — goalJack Hinshelwood 51' — goal
Brighton and Hove Albion 1.54 xGBrentford 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jan Paul van Hecke 17' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Pascal Groß 19' — Missed Shot (0.54 xG, Open Play)Simon Adingra 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Bryan Mbeumo 26' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Pascal Groß 30' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 34' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jan Paul van Hecke 40' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Frank Onyeka 43' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 46' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 47' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Billy Gilmour 48' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 48' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 50' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Yoane Wissa 50' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Kaoru Mitoma 50' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jack Hinshelwood 51' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 53' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Facundo Buonanotte 57' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Simon Adingra 62' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ethan Pinnock 63' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Set Piece)Keane Lewis-Potter 72' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Keane Lewis-Potter 73' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Igor Julio 80' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Simon Adingra 80' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Simon Adingra 82' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ben Mee 94' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right Brentford attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
17' Brighton and Hove Albion Jan Paul van Hecke 0.07 From Corner Saved Shot Billy Gilmour
19' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.54 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jack Hinshelwood
21' Brighton and Hove Albion Simon Adingra 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
26' Brentford Bryan Mbeumo 0.76 Left Foot Goal
30' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Goal Kaoru Mitoma
34' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.05 Open Play Saved Shot
40' Brighton and Hove Albion Jan Paul van Hecke 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Billy Gilmour
43' Brentford Frank Onyeka 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Neal Maupay
46' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Carlos Baleba
47' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kaoru Mitoma
48' Brighton and Hove Albion Billy Gilmour 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kaoru Mitoma
48' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Simon Adingra
50' Brentford Neal Maupay 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Frank Onyeka
50' Brentford Yoane Wissa 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
50' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
51' Brighton and Hove Albion Jack Hinshelwood 0.09 Open Play Goal Pascal Groß
53' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Facundo Buonanotte
57' Brighton and Hove Albion Facundo Buonanotte 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Simon Adingra
62' Brighton and Hove Albion Simon Adingra 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Carlos Baleba
63' Brentford Ethan Pinnock 0.11 Set Piece Missed Shot Saman Ghoddos
72' Brentford Keane Lewis-Potter 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
73' Brentford Keane Lewis-Potter 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
80' Brighton and Hove Albion Igor Julio 0.08 From Corner Blocked Shot Billy Gilmour
80' Brighton and Hove Albion Simon Adingra 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
82' Brighton and Hove Albion Simon Adingra 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
94' Brentford Ben Mee 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Vitaly Janelt

Players

Brighton and Hove Albion

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pascal Groß DL 90 1 1 3 1 0.60 0.09 0.90
Jan Paul van Hecke DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.16 0.00 0.74
Simon Adingra AMR 90 0 0 4 2 0.15 0.08 0.99
Igor Julio DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.83
Billy Gilmour DMC 90 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.24 0.90
Kaoru Mitoma AML 90 0 1 1 3 0.02 0.22 0.87
Carlos Baleba DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.36
Jason Steele GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Jack Hinshelwood DR 80 1 0 1 1 0.09 0.54 0.87
João Pedro FW 76 0 0 4 0 0.39 0.00 0.50
Facundo Buonanotte AMC 76 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.13 0.20
Evan Ferguson Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
James Milner Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Joël Veltman Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jakub Moder Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benicio Baker-Boaitey Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Brentford

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Neal Maupay FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.14 0.02 0.22
Ethan Pinnock DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.06
Ben Mee DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Frank Onyeka MR 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.14 0.22
Saman Ghoddos DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.14
Vitaly Janelt MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Mark Flekken GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mads Roerslev DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shandon Baptiste ML 76 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yehor Yarmolyuk MC 53 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yoane Wissa Sub 51 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.14
Bryan Mbeumo FW 39 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.00
Keane Lewis-Potter Sub 37 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Mikkel Damsgaard Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Myles Peart-Harris Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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