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Brighton and Hove Albion v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 9 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Brighton and Hove Albion
1–1
2.96 – 1.05 xG
Burnley
Shots
29 – 6
On target
11 – 3
Shots in box
23 – 5
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.96 – -0.19
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.72.53.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Wilson Odobert 44' — goalSimon Adingra 76' — goal
Brighton and Hove Albion 2.96 xGBurnley 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Wilson Odobert 7' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Johann Berg Gudmundsson 9' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 14' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Pascal Groß 14' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Zeki Amdouni 18' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Adam Lallana 19' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 24' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 27' — Saved Shot (0.24 xG, Open Play)Simon Adingra 29' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)James Milner 33' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jan Paul van Hecke 34' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mahmoud Dahoud 35' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mahmoud Dahoud 39' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Wilson Odobert 44' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Billy Gilmour 47' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jay Rodriguez 48' — Saved Shot (0.71 xG, Open Play)Jay Rodriguez 48' — Blocked Shot (0.20 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 55' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Kaoru Mitoma 62' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Evan Ferguson 63' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 69' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)João Pedro 73' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Simon Adingra 73' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Kaoru Mitoma 76' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Simon Adingra 76' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 86' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Jack Hinshelwood 90' — Blocked Shot (0.22 xG, Open Play)Jack Hinshelwood 90' — Saved Shot (0.63 xG, Open Play)Jack Hinshelwood 91' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jack Hinshelwood 93' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Billy Gilmour 94' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Evan Ferguson 95' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Kaoru Mitoma 96' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Kaoru Mitoma 97' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Kaoru Mitoma 97' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right Burnley attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Burnley Wilson Odobert 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Zeki Amdouni
9' Burnley Johann Berg Gudmundsson 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Sander Berge
14' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.01 Set Piece — Saved Shot Carlos Baleba
14' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
18' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Johann Berg Gudmundsson
19' Brighton and Hove Albion Adam Lallana 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lewis Dunk
24' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.06 Open Play — Missed Shot James Milner
27' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.24 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Simon Adingra
29' Brighton and Hove Albion Simon Adingra 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Adam Lallana
33' Brighton and Hove Albion James Milner 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Evan Ferguson
34' Brighton and Hove Albion Jan Paul van Hecke 0.04 Open Play — Missed Shot Simon Adingra
35' Brighton and Hove Albion Mahmoud Dahoud 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pascal Groß
39' Brighton and Hove Albion Mahmoud Dahoud 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot James Milner
44' Burnley Wilson Odobert 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jay Rodriguez
47' Brighton and Hove Albion Billy Gilmour 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
48' Burnley Jay Rodriguez 0.71 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
48' Burnley Jay Rodriguez 0.20 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
55' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot James Milner
62' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Simon Adingra
63' Brighton and Hove Albion Evan Ferguson 0.03 Open Play — Missed Shot Jan Paul van Hecke
69' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.06 From Corner — Saved Shot —
73' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Pascal Groß
73' Brighton and Hove Albion Simon Adingra 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot João Pedro
76' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lewis Dunk
76' Brighton and Hove Albion Simon Adingra 0.40 Open Play — Goal Pascal Groß
86' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot —
90' Brighton and Hove Albion Jack Hinshelwood 0.22 Open Play — Blocked Shot Pascal Groß
90' Brighton and Hove Albion Jack Hinshelwood 0.63 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
91' Brighton and Hove Albion Jack Hinshelwood 0.04 Open Play — Missed Shot Kaoru Mitoma
93' Brighton and Hove Albion Jack Hinshelwood 0.03 Open Play — Saved Shot Simon Adingra
94' Brighton and Hove Albion Billy Gilmour 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
95' Brighton and Hove Albion Evan Ferguson 0.06 Open Play — Saved Shot Pascal Groß
96' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Billy Gilmour
97' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
97' Brighton and Hove Albion Kaoru Mitoma 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —

Players

Burnley

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dara O'Shea DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
James Trafford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Charlie Taylor DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Josh Brownhill MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Louis Beyer DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sander Berge MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.29
Vitinho DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Zeki Amdouni FW 84 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.10 0.25
Jay Rodriguez FW 80 0 1 2 1 0.90 0.04 0.94
Wilson Odobert ML 80 1 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
Johann Berg Gudmundsson MR 60 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.09 0.19
Aaron Ramsey Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mike Trésor Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nathan Redmond Sub 10 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
Connor Roberts Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hjalmar Ekdal Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Brighton and Hove Albion

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Simon Adingra AMR 90 1 0 3 4 0.89 0.35 1.71
Pascal Groß DR 90 0 1 4 5 0.39 0.77 1.73
João Pedro AML 90 0 0 4 1 0.21 0.38 0.85
Evan Ferguson FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.05 0.20
Jan Paul van Hecke DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.03 1.34
Bart Verbruggen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Lewis Dunk DC 87 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.55
James Milner DL 61 0 0 1 3 0.05 0.16 0.48
Carlos Baleba DMC 61 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.44
Adam Lallana AMC 48 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.11 0.52
Mahmoud Dahoud DMC 48 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.35
Kaoru Mitoma Sub 42 0 0 5 1 0.24 0.04 0.92
Billy Gilmour Sub 42 0 0 2 1 0.04 0.06 0.55
Jack Hinshelwood Sub 29 0 0 4 0 0.91 0.00 0.94
Igor Julio Sub 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.23
Facundo Buonanotte Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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