Brighton and Hove Albion v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 21 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 6
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
13 – 3
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.48 – -0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
40.4%
Draw
28.9%
Chelsea win
30.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.66 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 2.52 xGChelsea 0.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 2' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 10' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 14' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 17' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 21' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 40' |
 Chelsea |
Trevoh Chalobah | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Chelsea |
Romeo Lavia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 53' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Georginio Rutter |
| 61' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 65' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 66' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 69' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 70' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 79' |
Chelsea |
Marc Guiu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Trevoh Chalobah |
| 90' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maxim De Cuyper |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hinshelwood AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.09 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| Olivier Boscagli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.90 |
| Georginio Rutter FW | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.51 | 0.82 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 0.56 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxim De Cuyper Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Welbeck Sub | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Moisés Caicedo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pedro Neto MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marc Cucurella ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Jorrel Hato DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Enzo Fernández AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Romeo Lavia MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Liam Delap FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Marc Guiu Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dário Essugo Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Josh Acheampong Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |