Brighton and Hove Albion v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 14
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.92 – -1.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Brighton and Hove Albion win
47.5%
Draw
25.7%
Sunderland win
26.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–0.94 | 1-0 12% | 48% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Brighton and Hove Albion 0.92 xGSunderland 1.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 13' |
 Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Brajan Gruda | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 31' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 37' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Sunderland |
Chris Rigg | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 46' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mats Wieffer |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 48' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joël Veltman |
| 51' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lutsharel Geertruida |
| 52' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 54' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 58' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 59' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Brajan Gruda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Trai Hume |
| 65' |
Sunderland |
Romaine Mundle | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 66' |
Sunderland |
Romaine Mundle | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 75' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 76' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
James Milner | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 76' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charalampos Kostoulas |
| 81' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 85' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joël Veltman |
| 92' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Milner |
| 93' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charalampos Kostoulas |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasin Ayari DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Georginio Rutter FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Brajan Gruda AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.49 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Olivier Boscagli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxim De Cuyper AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Joël Veltman Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| Kaoru Mitoma Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| James Milner Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Tom Watson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Enzo Le Fée AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 0.62 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Trai Hume DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Nordi Mukiele DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Chris Rigg AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Simon Adingra AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Romaine Mundle Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Habib Diarra Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |